Page 250 - DCOM203_DMGT204_QUANTITATIVE_TECHNIQUES_I

Unit 11: Analysis of Time Series

Years : 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Notes
Production : 152 129 154 186 189 174 170 186
9. Draw a trend line by the method of semi-averages from the following data. The figures of
sales are in ‘000.

Years : 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Sales : 85 102 80 89 92 87 94

10. Fit a linear trend to the following data, on average monthly output, with origin at mid-
point of the year 2006. Convert this into a monthly trend equation. Estimate the average
output for June and August, 2006.

Year : 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Output : 6.3 7.4 9.3 7.4 8.3 10.6 9.0 8.7 7.9
11. Fit a straight line trend to the following data on average monthly domestic demand (in
million barrels) for motor fuel:

Year : 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Demand : 61 66 72 76 82 90 96 100 103 110 114

12. Fit a straight line trend by the method of least squares for the following data and obtain
the trend values in the form of average monthly production for each year. Also estimate
the average monthly production for 2011 and the production for individual months, May
and July of 2011.

Year : 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Production : 70 80 82 73 84 89 82

Answers: Self Assessment

1. equal 2. Successive intervals
3. 10 years 4. yearly
5. time series 6. bivariate
7. entirely different 8. Secular trend
9. Oscillatory movements 10. depression, recovery

11. cyclical variations. 12. 3 to 10
13. Random, Irregular 14. (b)
15. (c) 16. (c)

17. True 18. True
19. True 20. False

11.6 Further Readings

Books Balwani Nitin Quantitative Techniques, First Edition: 2002. Excel Books, New Delhi.
Bhardwaj R.S., Business Statistics, Excel Books.

LOVELY PROFESSIONAL UNIVERSITY 245