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Unit 4: Risk and Return Analysis




          The first three risk factors discussed below are systematic in nature and the rest are unsystematic.  Notes
          Political risk could be categorised depending on whether it affects the market as whole, or just
          a particular industry.

          4.1 Types of Investment Risk


          Systematic versus Non-systematic Risk

          Modern investment analysis categorizes the  traditional sources of risk causing variability in
          returns into two general types: those that are pervasive in nature, such as market risk or interest
          rate risk, and those that are specific to a particular security issue, such as business or financial
          risk. Therefore, we must consider these two categories of total risk. The following discussion
          introduces these terms. Dividing total risk into its two components, a general (market) component
          and a specific (issuer) component, we have systematic risk and non-systematic risk, which are
          additive:

               Total risk = General risk + Specific risk
                        = Market risk + Issuer risk
                        = Systematic risk + Non-systematic risk

          Systematic Risk: An investor can construct a diversified portfolio and eliminate part of the total
          risk, the diversifiable or non-market part. What is left is the non-diversifiable portion or the
          market risk. Variability in a  security's total returns that  is directly associated with  overall
          movements in the general market or economy is called systematic (market) risk.

          Virtually all securities have some systematic risk, whether bonds or stocks, because systematic
          risk directly encompasses interest rate, market, and inflation risks. The investor cannot escape
          this part of the risk because no matter how well he or she diversifies, the risk of the overall
          market cannot be avoided. If the stock market declines sharply, most stocks will be adversely
          affected; if it rises strongly, as in the last few months of 1982, most stocks will appreciate in
          value. These movements occur regardless of what any single investor does. Clearly, market risk
          is critical to all investors.
          Non-systematic Risk: The variability in a security's total returns not related to overall market
          variability is called the non-systematic (non-market) risk. This risk is unique  to a  particular
          security and is associated with such factors as business and financial risk as well as liquidity risk.
          Although all securities tend to have some non-systematic risk, it is generally connected with
          common stocks.



             Caution Remember the difference: Systematic (market) risk is attributable to broad macro
             factors affecting all securities. Non-systematic (non-market) risk is attributable to factors
             unique to a security.
          Different types of systematic and non-systematic risks are explained as under:

          1.   Market Risk:  The variability in a security's returns resulting from fluctuations in the
               aggregate  market is known as market risk. All securities  are exposed  to market risk
               including recessions, wars, structural changes in the economy, tax law changes and even
               changes in  consumer preferences. Market risk is sometimes used synonymously  with
               systematic risk.




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