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Unit 8: The Restoration Period or Beginning of Neoclassicism (Dryden's Contribution, Glorious Revolution of 1688)

Notes

Did u know? By the end of the war in 1697, the new fiscal powers of Parliament were largely
in place.

8.2.6 Constitutional Credibility

The financial and economic importance of the arrangement between William and Mary and Parliament
was that the commitments embodied in the constitutional monarchy of the Glorious Revolution
were more credible that the commitments under the Restoration constitution. Essential to the
argument is what economists mean by the term credible. If a constitution is viewed as a deal between
Parliament and the Crown, then credibility means how believable it is today that Parliament and the
king will choose to honor their promises tomorrow. Credibility does not ask whether Charles II
reneged on a promise; rather, credibility asks if people expected Charles to renege.
One can represent the situation by drawing a decision tree that shows the future choices determining
credibility. For example, the decision tree in Figure 8.1 contains the elements determining the
credibility of Charles II’s honoring the Restoration constitution of 1660. Going forward in time
from 1660 (left to right), the critical decision is whether Charles II will honor the constitution or
eventually renege. The future decision by Charles, however, will depend on his estimation of
benefits of becoming an absolute monarch versus the cost of failure and the chances he assigns to
each. Determining credibility in 1660 requires working backwards (right to left). If one thinks
Charles II will risk civil war to become an absolute monarch, then one would expect Charles II to
renege on the constitution, and therefore the constitution lacks credibility despite what Charles II
may promise in 1660. In contrast, if one expects Charles II to avoid civil war, then one would expect
Charles to choose to honor the constitution, so the Restoration constitution would be credible.

Figure 8.1 Restoration of 1660 Decision Tree

Charles II Charles II
Honors Succeeds
Restoration in becoming
Constitution Absolute
Monarch

Charles II
Reneges

Monarchy Charles II Uncertain Civil War
Restored Decides Outcome

1660 Time

A difficulty with credibility is foreseeing future options. With hindsight, we know that Charles II
did attempt to break the Restoration constitution in 1670-72. When his war against Holland failed,
he repaired relations with Parliament and avoided civil war, so Charles managed something not
portrayed in Figure 8.1. He replaced the outcome of civil war in the decision tree with the outcome
of a return to the status quo. The consequence of removing the threat of civil war, however, was to
destroy credibility in the king’s commitment to the constitution. If James II believed he inherited
the options created by his brother, then James II’s 1685 commitment to the Restoration constitution
lacked credibility because the worst that would happen to James was a return to the status quo.
So why would the Glorious Revolution constitution be more credible than Restoration constitution
challenged by both Charles II and James II? William was very unlikely to become Catholic or pro-
French which eliminated many tensions. Also, William very much needed Parliament’s support

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