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Unit-24: Methodological Dilemmas and Issues in Qualitative Research

but it is not certain that it would remain the same after some time also. this thing can also be said notes
true for a person’s behaviour. A human continuously learns from his experiences, education and this
changes his behaviour pattern. Not only this but any sudden incident may also change the living style
of a person or society in one night. For example, a famous police officer who consumes 15-20 cups
of tea in a day goes to Ayodhya where a religious saint asks him to give away one of his habit for
the name of god and the police officer takes a shocking decision to leave his habit of drinking tea in
front of all his relatives and wife. Everyone thought that it was possible for police officer to leave the
world but not tea but now everyone thinks that a person who can leave tea can leave anything—what
can be said about human brain! Therefore, now the close ones of that police officer advise him to go
anywhere except Ayodhyaji because they fear that they don’t know what he may leave when he again
goes there. this thing is true for human society as well. A society that was till date a happy and united
one may become the victim of a flood or an earthquake one night—the same society may turn to an
heart touching pathetic society. Due to such changes it is difficult to use scientific study.
Superficially this point seems to have much weightage. But changes or alteration are also evident in
physical and natural phenomena. But change does not mean that social phenomena continue to happen
in unorganized, sudden and uncertain manner. It is difficult to imagine this in even in barbarian society
what to imagine in a civilized society. By doing a little alert inspection we come to know that in spite
of changes, there is certainty, and in social phenomena the scientific study of these is also possible in
the same way as natural and physical phenomena.

24.7 Unpredictability of Social Phenomena

Experience or future view is a test of science. A scientific rule makes us realize that what will be the
possible procedures of future. it is said that the nature of social phenomena is such that it is impossible
to do its prediction. the characteristics of social phenomena such as complexity, qualitativeness,
dissimilarity and variations lessen the power of prediction. John A. Madge has written that one point
starting from Comp and Spencer till the present day scientists all agree is that it is difficult to predict the
human behaviour as compared to physical and natural phenomena. two opposite reasons have been
told as reasons for this uncertainty of social phenomena-(1) according to some scholars human behaviour
is itself not fully affected by the circumstances around itself, humans themselves have the capacity
to think. therefore, they do not behave the same in a particular manner in a particular situation. (2)
According to other scholars human behaviour is not independent and is affected by special phenomena
but these phenomena are themselves so complex and diverse that it is impossible to predict that how
much and how they will affect human behaviour. this is the reason why human behaviour becomes
uncertain and unfit for preconception. In the same way social phenomena unlike physical phenomena
are rapidly changing and due to this any preconception relating to this becomes uncertain.
the psychological studies that have been conducted in the modern time reveals such blames as baseless.
in reality the people who put such blames forget that the human behaviour and facts that have been
selected for the scientific study are not individual behaviour but group behaviour and there is not
much uncertainty, variation in group behaviour that we cannot do any prediction about them. Also
we should not forget this that the power of future prediction does not mean that any preconception
that has been made will hold true in all situations. such capability is not even in physical sciences.
A natural or physical science also cannot predict this accurately that when will it rain, when will an
earthquake occur, when will a storm or lunar tide occur or when will a child-birth take place, will it
be a girl or a boy and at the starting of a cure of a disease doctor cannot tell whether the patient will
die. Whatever he is saying may be true but it may be false also. in other words in his future prediction
always an element of probability will reside and whatever he says will hold true or false will depend
upon certain conditions. today’s water will remain as water tomorrow will prove to be true only if
tomorrow is not much cold or hot. if it is too cold then water will turn to ice and if it is too hot then
it will turn to water vapour.

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