Page 235 - DMGT404 RESEARCH_METHODOLOGY

Unit 10: Time Series

Year Production of steel in 000 Tons Notes
2003 30
2004 31
2005 32
2006 34
2007 33
2008 29

13. Seasonal index of the sale of woolen garments in a store is as follows:

Quarter Seasonal Index
January to March 90
April to June 80
July to September 71
October to December 120

If the total sales of woolen garments in the 1st Quarter is worth 45,000 how much worth
of woolen garments should be kept in stock to meet the demand for remaining quarters,
anticipating winter season.
14. An agricultural cooperative society wants to measure variation in its member farmer's
wheat harvest over a period of 8 years. The volume harvested actually each year is given
as below.
Year 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Actual Production 7.5 7.8 8.2 8.2 8.4 8.5 8.7 9.1
in (000) quintals

Answers: Self Assessment

1. long-term 2. quantified
3. seasonal influences 4. secular trend

5. Seasonal Variations 6. short-term
7. historical 8. Exponential smoothing
9. Moving average 10. median, mean
11. standard deviation 12. variance

13. Mean Squared Error 14. true value
15. error 16. seasonal variations
17. Link relatives 18. Ratio to trend

10.10 Further Readings

Books Allan & Blumon, Elementary Statistics: A Step by Step Approach, McGraw-Hill
College, June 2003.

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