Page 195 - DCOM507_STOCK_MARKET_OPERATIONS

Stock Market Operations

Notes Tourism Forecasting
Tourism forecasting and modelling are important in identifying possible future trends
that may affect the industry at a national or destination level. National level forecasts can
provide high level insights into expected visitor numbers and growth, source markets
and other potential market changes that may affect future planning for a destination or
region. At a destination level, predicative modelling for tourism can help managers to
identify potential issues, challenges and opportunities for the future development and
management of tourism in a region. Predicative modelling can assist in testing possible
tourism scenarios and their potential impact on the destination and its future planning
and management.
There are a range of predictive modelling tools such as input-output analysis, computable
general equilibrium models, tourism systems models and Geographical Information
Systems that have been developed. The Tapestry Tourism Futures Model, developed by
the Sustainable Tourism Cooperative Research Centre in the Regional Tourism
Modelling report, is a tourism systems model approach to forecasting and scenario analysis.
The Tapestry Model framework (as below), applied to the Tapestry region as a case study,
assesses the impact that a growth in visitor numbers or population will have on expenditure,
business activity and demand for infrastructure development and investment in the region.
A similar model was also used in the Ningaloo Destination Modelling project undertaken
by the STCRC.

Source: Walker et al, 2005 ‘Regional Tourism Modelling; The South West Tapestry’, Sustainable
Tourism Cooperative Research Centre

Source: http://www.sustainabletourismonline.com/destinations-and-communities/implementation/
ongoing-management/forecasting-and-trend-analysis

10.2 Technical vs Fundamental Analysis

With a view to making a broad comparison between technical analysis and fundamental analysis,
let us assume that the fundamentalist is a conservative who invests for the long-term and the
technician is a trader who buys and sells for short-term profits. Actually, of course, the value of
technical analysis lies between these extremes.

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