Page 61 - DMGT521_PROJECT_MANAGEMENT

Project Management

Notes

Task Discuss about Delphi Method or Demand Forecasting.

Self Assessment

State True or False:
6. Indirect interaction among experts is avoided nor their identify is disclosed.
7. Delphi method is a group process and aims at achieving a consensus of the members.

8. Coordinator repeats the process of collating, editing and summarizing the responses.
9. Forecasts of supply must be reasonable, inconsistent and plausible.
10. Sales personnel are closest to the customers and have an intimate feel of the market.

4.6 Technical Analysis

For manufacturing a product/service often two or more alternative technologies are available.
For example:
1. Steel can be made either by the Bessemer process or the open hearth process.
2. Cement can be made either by the dry process or the wet process.

3. Soda can be made by the electrolysis method or the chemical method.
4. Paper, using bagasse as the raw material, can be manufactured by the Kraft process or the
soda process or the Simon Cusi process.

5. Vinyl chloride can be manufactured by using one of the following reactions: acetylene on
hydrochloric acid or ethylene on chlorine.
6. Soap can be manufactured by the semi-boiled process or the fully boiled process.

4.6.1 Choice of Technology

The choice of technology is influenced by a variety of considerations. These are explained
below:
1. Plant Capacity: Often, there is a close relationship between plant capacity and production
technology. To meet a given capacity requirement perhaps only a certain production
technology may be viable.

2. Principal Inputs: The choice of technology depends on the principal inputs available for
the project. In some cases, the raw materials available influence the technology chosen.

Example: The quality of milestones determines whether the wet or dry process should
be used for a cement plant.

3. Investment Outlay and Production Cost: The effect of alternative technologies on
investment outlay and production cost over a period of time should be carefully assessed.
4. Use by Other Units: The technology adopted must be proven by successful use by other
units, preferably in India.

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