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Western Political Thought

Notes There was no indication in the book as to whether this-aim would be achieved. But he was convinced
that only unification would bring about prosperity and security. He wanted Italy to be like France
and Spain. In fact, he admired the French constitution where the king was abound by law and
custom and its people were secure and free. The primary thing was independence. Everything else
was secondary. In that sense, Machiavelli became a precursor of the nineteenth-century Italian
nationalists Cavour, Garibaldi and Mazzini. In spite of his candid realism, he could not resist the
temptation of being idealistic, and entertained the possibility of what ought to be rather than what is.
If viewed in this light, then Machiavelli was not completely cynical or nihilistic.
Theory of Change and Fortune as a Woman

Machiavelli’s theory of change combined historical and psychological factors. Historical changes
occurred due to the role of fortune, which held the key to success. Machiavelli described fortune
as a woman to whom vir or manliness was attracted. The relationship between virtu and dame
fortune was addressed in terms of masculine and feminine nature (Pitkin 1984). Virtu was to
politics what virility was to sex.
According to Machiavelli, fortune favoured and befriended the brave. Fortune was compared to a
violent river, which when aroused caused havoc by flooding the plains, tearing down trees and
buildings, destroying everything that came in its way. Continuing with the allegory of the river,
Machiavelli advised the rulers to build floodgates and embankments to contain the raging river
within the barricades. Fortune destroyed those who did not sufficiently safeguard their interests.
Fortune, being fickle, could be contained only by those who had the capacity to change. Furthermore,
Machiavelli suggested that instead of yielding before fortune, one had to act boldly and decisively.
Fortune would ruin those who submitted meekly or those who did not protect or adapt themselves.
Men conquered fortune by acknowledging its power in order to prevent a stream from becoming
a raging torrent:
... fortune varying and men remaining,fixed in their ways, they are successful so long
as these ways conform to circumstances, but when they are opposed then they are
unsuccessful. I certainly think that it is better to be impetuous than cautious, for
fortune is a woman, and it is necessary, if you wish to master her, to conquer her by
force; and it can be seen that she lets herself be overcome by the bold rather than by
those who proceed coldly. And therefore, like a woman, she is always a friend to the
young, because they are less cautious, fiercer, and master her with greater audacity.
Machiavelli’s discussion of fortune and virtu had to be understood in the context of Italian
humanism. Fortune was no longer the “inexorable force of providence”, but a “capricious power”
of irrational happenstance. Through his creative power and assertiveness, man would be able to
control and shape his destiny against the flux that fortune unleashed. By doing so, Machiavelli
reiterated the view of the humanists that the human predicament had to be seen as a struggle
between man’s will and fortune’s wilfulness, setting aside the Christian perception of fortune as
a life force, a divine necessity with very little room for human manoeuvre and free action.
Machiavelli repeatedly advised his prince to follow his maxims and precepts if he wanted to avoid
the ruin or the sudden revolutions caused by fortune. He believed it was possible to effect change
and bring events under human control by systematic and self-conscious statesmanship, for “he
protested against the view that man cannot change events; he complained of those people who
allow things to be governed by chance”.
To Machiavelli, the right person was needed at a given point in time of history. Elite circulation
could either be slow or fast, peaceful or violent, depending on the situation. The psychological
factors that supply the motive for change were the ones that Machiavelli considered the qualities
of a lion or a fox, an aspect that was refined by Pareto in his analysis of the elite. Machiavelli saw
change as never-ending, being a law of history supported by the laws of psychology.

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