Page 291 - DECO504_STATISTICAL_METHODS_IN_ECONOMICS_HINDI

bdkbZ—20% vfojks/ dk ifj{k.k% bdkbZ ekin.M] le; mRØE;rk ijh{k.k] rRo mRØE;rk ijh{k.k] pØh; ijh{k.k

(i) bdkbZ ekin.M (Unit Test)μbl ekin.M ds vuqlkj lw=k bdkbZ Lokra=k gksuh pkfg, vFkkZr ewY; vkSj ek=kk,¡ uksV
fdlh Hkh bdkbZ esa O;Dr dh tk ldrh gS] ljy lewgh lwpdkad dks NksM+dj 'ks"k lHkh lw=k bl ekin.M dks
lrq"V dj ldrs gSaA

(ii) le;&mRØkE;rk ijh{k.k (Time Reversal Test)μle;&mRØkE;rk dk ;g vFkZ gS fd ;fn vk/kj o"kZ ij
vk/kfjr djrs gq, pkyw o"kZ dk lwpdkad fudkyk tk;s vkSj blh izdkj pkyw o"kZ ij vk/kfjr] vk/kj o"kZ dk
lwpdkad fudkyk tk;s rks bu nksuksa dk xq.kuiQy 1 gksuk pkfg;s vFkkZr~ nksuksa lwpdkad ,d nwljs osQ O;qRØe
(Reciprocal) gksus pkfg;sA lw=kkuqlkjμ
1
P = P × P = 1 ;k P =
01 01 10 01 P 10

P = vk/kj&o"kZ ewY;ksa ij vk/kfjr pkyw&o"kZ dk lwpdkad
01
P = pkyw&o"kZ osQ ewY;ksa ij vk/kfjr vk/kj&o"kZ dk lwpdkad
10
mnkgj.kμ;fn 1985 osQ vk/kj ij rS;kj fd;k x;kA 1988 dk lwpdkad ;g O;Dr djs fd oLrq dk ewY; nqxquk
gks x;k gS] rks 1988 osQ vk/kj ij fu£er 1985 osQ lwpdkad dks ;g Li"V djuk pkfg, fd 1985 esa oLrq dk
ewY; 1988 dh rqyuk esa vk/k jg x;k gS vFkkZr~ 2 × 1/2 = 1

fVIi.khμfiQ'kj dk vkn'kZ lwpdkad bl ijh{k.k dks iwjk djrk gS tcfd ykLis;j] ik'ks vkfn dksbZ Hkh vU; lw=k
bl ijh{k.k dks iwjk ugha djrkA
Σ 10 Σpq pq Σ 00 Σpq p q
11
0 1
P = × P = ×
01 Σ 00 Σpq pq 10 Σ 10 Σpq pq
1 1
0 1
Σ Σp q pq Σ Σpq pq
P × P = 10 × 11 × 0 0 × 0 1 = 1
01 10 Σ 00 Σpq 0 1 Σpq 1 0 Σp q p q
1 1
(iii) rÙo mRØkE;rk ijh{k.k (Factor Reversal Test)μrÙo&mRØkE;rk ijh{k.k dk vFkZ gS fd ;fn ^ewY;* osQ
LFkku ij ^ek=kk* vkSj ek=kk osQ LFkku ij ewY; j[kdj lwpdkad (Q ) rS;kj fd;k tk;s rks mldk vkSj
01
ewY;&lwpdkad (P ) dk xq.kuiQy] pkyw o"kZ osQ oqQy ewY; (Σp q ) vkSj vk/kj o"kZ osQ oqQy ewY; (Σp q ) osQ
01 1 1 0 0
vuqikr osQ cjkcj gksuk pkfg,A

fiQ'kj us Lo;a bl lEcU/ esa fy[kk gS fd ¶---ftl izdkj nks le;ksa osQ ijLij ifjorZu djus ls vlaxr
iQy u izkIr gksa Bhd mlh izdkj ;g Hkh lEHko gksuk pkfg, fd ewY;ksa rFkk ek=kkvksa osQ izfrLFkkiu djus
ij Hkh vlaxr iQy izkIr u gksa vFkkZr~ nksuksa ifj.kkeksa dh vkil esa xq.kk djus ij okLrfod ewY; vuqikr
izkIr gksaA¸
mnkgj.kμ;fn 1988 esa 1985 dh vis{kk ewY; nqxus gks tk;sa vkSj ek=kk M~;ks<+h gks tk;s rks 1988 esa oqQy ewY;
1985 dh rqyuk esa rhu xq.kk gks tkuk pkfg,A ljy 'kCnksa esa] ;fn ewY; osQ LFkku ij ek=kk vkSj ek=kk osQ LFkku

ij ewY; j[kdj lwpdkad (Q ) rS;kj fd;k tk, rks mldk vkSj ewY; lwpdkad (P ) dk xq.kuiQy pkyw&o"kZ osQ
01 01
oqQy ewY; (Σp q ) vkSj vk/kj o"kZ osQ oqQy ewY; (Σp q ) osQ vuqikr osQ cjkcj gksuk pkfg,A lw=kkuqlkjμ
1 1 0 0
Σpq
P × Q = 11 (okLrfod ewY;&vuqikr)
01 01 Σpq
00

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