Page 361 - DECO504_STATISTICAL_METHODS_IN_ECONOMICS_HINDI

bdkbZ—25% py&ekè; dh jhfr

uksV

fp=k 25-1

gy (Solution) :

mi;qZDr fof/ dks xfreku ekè; ;k py ekè; jhfr dgk tkrk gS rFkk ekè; fudkyus esa iz;qDr inksa dh la[;k
dks py ekè; dh vof/ (Period of moving average) dgk tkrk gSA bl izdkj izkIr py ekè; chp osQ
le; fcUnqvksa osQ miufr osQ eki fy, tkrs gSaA ;fn py ekè; vof/ 4 yh yk, rks py ekè; fuEu izdkj gksaxsμ

v + 1 v + 2 v + 3 v 4 , v + 2 v + 3 v + 4 v 5 , ........., v + 6 v + 7 v + 8 v 9
4 4 4

tc py ekè; dh vof/ ,d le&la[;k (2, 4, 6, 8, ...) gks rks fdlh le; fcUnq osQ lkeus dh miufr dk eki
izkIr djus osQ fy, py ekè;ksa dks osQfUnzr fd;k tkrk gSA blosQ fy, iwoZ esa fudkys x, py ekè;ksa osQ vof/
nks osQ py ekè; fudkys tkrs FksA

25-2 py&ekè; jhfr dk mi;ksx (Use of Moving Average Method)

py ekè; jhfr dk iz;ksx miufr dk ekiu djus osQ fy, fd;k tkrk gSA izR;sd xfreku ekè; dks chp dh le;
vof/ osQ lkeus fy[kk tkrk gSA ;fn le; vof/ ,d le&la[;k gks rks le; fcUnq osQ lkeus fy[kus osQ fy,
xfreku ekè;ksa dks osQfUnzr fd;k tkrk gSA ;s py ekè; gh miufr ewY; gSaA miufr Kkr djus osQ ckn ;ksxkRed
fun'kZ Y = T + S + C + I dk iz;ksx djrs gq, miufr dks fujflr dj fn;k tk, rks Y – T = S + C + I 'ks"k jg
tkrk gSA (S + C + I) dks izk;% vYidkyhu mPpkopu dh laKk nh tkrh gSA

;fn dky&Js.kh esa fdlh vkofrZrk (periodicity) dk irk pyrk gS rks py ekè; dh vof/ vkofrZrk osQ cjkcj
ysus ij leLr fu;fer rFkk vfu;fer mPpkopu nwj gks tkrs gSaA vkofrZrk ls rkRi;Z ,d pØ dh vof/ ls
gSA ;fn dky&Js.kh esa pØksa dh vof/ leku ugha gS rks py ekè; dh vof/ pØksa dh vkSlru vof/ ls fu/
kZfjr dh tk ldrh gSA vkSlru vof/ Kkr djus osQ fy, pØh; rjaxksa osQ Øfed f'k[kjksa (Successive crests)
;k Øfed fuEu fcUnqvksa (Successive troughs) osQ ikjLifjd vUrj fudkydj mu vUrjksa dk ekè; Kkr dj
fy;k tkrk gSA

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