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Unit 4: Fundamental Analysis




          Valuation                                                                             Notes
          The investor interested in growth shares can either employ (1) Comparative P/E ratios approach
          or (2) Dividend Discount model for valuation of the stocks.

          Guidelines for Investment

          The following guidelines will be helpful to investors interested in growth stocks.
          1.   Tuning is not very important, but with appropriate timing one may be able to pick up
               shares at the threshold of high growth rate.
          2.   Choice of stock should not be based on simple factor. Multiple  criteria using different
               appraisal techniques may be employed.
          3.   It is better to diversify  investment in growth stocks  industry-wise. Because  different
               industries grow at different by evening out differences.

          4.   One should hold the stock for more than 5 years to gain advantage.
          Estimation of Future Price


          Before attempting to discuss the approach that can be adopted for company level analysis, let us
          about the objective of investor and how it can be quantified. It is to reiterate the proposition that
          an  investor looks  for increasing his returns  from the investment. Returns  are composed  of
          capital gains and a stream of income in the form of dividends. Assuming he has equity shares for
          a period of one year (known as holding period), i.e., he sells it at the end of the year, the total
          returns obtained by him would be equal to capital gains plus dividends received at the end of
          the year.

          Where, R       = (P – P ) + D
                   1        1   1–1  t
                 P       = Price of the share at the end of the year
                  1
                 P       = Price of the share at the beginning of the year
                  1–1
                 D       = Dividend received at the end of the year
                   1
                 R       = Return for the holding period, t
                   1
          In order to calculate the return received by him on his original investment (i.e. purchase price),
          total should be divided by P  – 1. These are expressed in percentage terms and known as holding
                                t
          period yield. Thus,
                                             (P   P  1) + D
                                    HRY (%) =   1  1       1
                                                   P 1  1
          The  above  computation  is quite simple as  long as  the value  of  the  variables  is  available.
          In reality, however, the investor would know the beginning price of the share (called purchase
          price) as this is the price paid to buy the shares, but the price at the end of the year (i.e. selling
          price)  as well as dividend  income received would have to be estimated. This  is where  the
          problem lies. How to estimate the future price of the share as well as dividends? This becomes
          the main challenge. The series data relating to dividends paid by companies provide us useful
          clues  in estimating  the dividends  likely to  be declared  by companies. There is,  it seems,  a
          dividends policy followed by most firms in general. Thus, an investor would be able to estimate
          dividend for the year with reasonable degree of accuracy under normal circumstances.
          It has been found the management is very conservative in increasing the amount of dividend
          paid to shareholders. Managements generally do not increase the dividend unless this increase
          is sustainable in the long run. This is to avoid further cuts if need count of dividend, in actual




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