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Security Analysis and Portfolio Management




                    Notes

                                     Notes       Decision Rules

                                     1.   Higher the P/E ratio, other things remaining the same, higher would be the value of
                                          an equity share.
                                     2.   Lower the P/E ratio, other things remaining the same, lower would be the value of
                                          an equity share.

                                   Looking at the above decision rules, it is not uncommon to find that investor prefer shares of
                                   companies higher P/E multiple.

                                   You will appreciate that the usefulness of the above model lies in understanding the various
                                   factors determine P/E ratio is broadly determined by:
                                   1.  Dividend payout
                                   2.  Growth

                                   3.  Risk free rate
                                   4.  Business risk
                                   5.  Financial risk
                                   Thus, other things remaining the same
                                   1.  Higher would be the P/E ratio, if higher is the growth rate or dividend or both

                                   2.  Lower would be P/E ratio, if higher is
                                       (a)  Risk-free rate
                                       (b)  Business risk
                                       (c)  Financial risk
                                   The foregoing presentation helps us provide a quantity measure of the value of equity share.
                                   However, there remains the problem of estimating earning per share, which has been used in
                                   both the methods discussed. This is a key number, which is being quoted, reported and used
                                   most often by company management analysts, financial press etc. It is this number everybody is
                                   attempting to forecast. The starting point to earnings per share, however, is to understand the
                                   chemistry of earnings as described in the  previous unit. We describe  various approaches to
                                   forecast earnings per share in the following sections.

                                   4.3.7  Forecasting Earnings per Share

                                   Things are the most important number in the arsenal of the investor. The most important and
                                   the principal is getting information about the earnings of the company is its financial statements.
                                   The analyst must remember the fact that there is more to the financial statements than what
                                   meets his eyes. Out of the two statements, balance sheet and income statement, it is the income
                                   statement that is more often used in order to gauge the future state of the firm. Research studies
                                   have indicated the significance of this number in influencing prices and dividends. The research
                                   study conducted by  Niederhoffer and Regan for example, found that the  prices are strongly
                                   dependent on the changes in the earnings, both absolute and relative to the analysis.
                                   The above study and some others indicate the importance of the forecast of earnings as the most
                                   important variable to work on in the investment decision-making process. The critical aspects
                                   of the earnings are its level, trend and stability.




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