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Unit 4: Determinants




          Thus x = 1,10,000 and y = 60,000.                                                     Notes
          Since 90% shares of A and 80% shares of B are allocated to outside shareholders, we can write the
          vector S = [0.9  0.8].

          Let P = [x  y] = [1,10,000 60,000] be vector of profits of the two companies A and B. Thus, the total
          profits allocated to the outside shareholders is the scalar product of S and P.
                                         S.P = 0.9 × 1,10,000 + 0.8 × 60,000 = 1,47,000.

          Note that this is equal to 98,000 + 49,000 which is the total of separately earned profits.
          Markov Brand-Switching Model


          Let there be only two brands, A and B, of a toilet soap available in the market. Let the current
          market share of brand A be 60% and that of B be 40%. We assume that brand-switching takes
          place every month such that 70% of the consumers of brand A continue to use it while remaining
          30% switch to brand B. Similarly, 80% of the consumers of brand B continue to use it while
          remaining 20% switch to brand A.
          The market shares of the two brands can be written as a row vector, S = [0.6   0.4] and the given
          brand switching information can be written as a matrix  P of transition probabilities,

                                            A    B
                                      A    0.7 0.3
                                   P =              .
                                       B   0.2 0.8
          Given the current information, we can calculate the shares of the two brands after, say, one
          month or two months or ......  n months. For example, the shares of the two brands after one
          month is

                                          0.7 0.3
                          S(1) = 0.6 0.4              0.5 0.5
                                          0.2 0.8
             Similarly, the shares after the expiry of two months are given by

                          S(2) = S(1)×P
             Proceeding in a similar manner, we can write the shares of the two brands after the expiry of
          n months as

                          S(n) = S(n – 1)×P
                              = S(n – 2)×P×P = S(n – 2)×P 2
                              ....................................
                                     n–1
                              = S(1)×P  = S(0)×P n
          where S(0) = [0.6    0.4] denotes the current market share vector of the two brands.
          We note that as n ® ¥, the market shares of the two brands will tend to stabilize to an equilibrium
          position. Once this state is reached, the shares of the two brands become constant. Eventually,
          we have S(n) = S(n – 1). Thus, we can write S = S.P, where S = [s     s ] is the vector giving the
                                                               A  B
          equilibrium shares of the two brands.
          The above equation can also be written as
                                      S[I – P] = 0







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