Page 78 - DCOM506_DMGT502_STRATEGIC_MANAGEMENT

Strategic Management

Notes 4. Delphi Technique: This is a forecasting technique in which the opinion of experts in the
appropriate field are obtained about the probability of the occurrence of specified events.
The responses of the experts are compiled and a summary is sent to each expert. This
process is repeated until consensus is arrived at regarding the forecast of a particular
event.
5. Statistical modeling: It is a quantitative technique that attempts to discover causal factors
that link two or more time series together. They use different sets of equations. Regression
analysis and other econometric methods are examples. Although very useful for grasping
historical trends, statistical modeling is based on historical data. As the patterns of
relationships change, the accuracy of the forecast deteriorates.
6. Cross-impact Analysis: By this analysis, researchers analyze and identify key trends that
will impact all other trends. The question is then put: “If event A occurs, what will be the
impact on all other trends”. The results are used to build “domino chains”, with one event
triggering others.
7. Brainstorming: Brainstorming is a technique to generate a number of alternatives by a
group of 6 to 10 persons. The basic ground rule is to propose ideas without first mentally
evaluating them. No criticism is allowed. Ideas tend to build on previous ideas until a
consensus is reached. This is a good technique to create ideas.

8. Demand/Hazard forecasting: Researchers identify major events that would greatly affect
the firm. Each event is rated for its convergence with several major trends taking place in
society and its appeal to a group of the public; the higher the event’s convergence and
appeal, the higher its probability of occurring.

Caselet Scooters wants Bigger Slice of Pizza Market

URBAN Pizza franchise group Scooters had passed the critical 50 store mark and
was nudging a R100m turnover in the year to February, MD Carlo Gonzaga said
Dyesterday.

Established in 2000 with the aim of securing half of the R1, 8bn pizza market within a
decade, Scooters lifted turnover 23% in the past year.
The group opened 14 new stores since last February, including an aggressive launch in
Western Cape.
The move gave the group a national footprint that came after its expansion into Botswana.
Gonzaga said Scooters would open a second store in Botswana in the new financial year as
well as establish at least one store in west Africa.

Gonzaga said west Africa's market afforded the group sufficient size to justify the
establishment and servicing costs associated with an international expansion.

The group will also open another 15 stores throughout SA, including nine in Western
Cape to achieve critical mass in that region.
Gonzaga expected Scooters to achieve 20% real growth in the year ahead, coming from a
combination of new stores and increased turnover from existing shops.
Contd...

72 LOVELY PROFESSIONAL UNIVERSITY