Page 205 - DCAP304_DCAP515_SOFTWARE_PROJECT_MANAGEMENT

Unit 10: Risk Management

Once they have begun to collect data, managers can begin to use performance analysis and look Notes
for trends to indicate whether or not a risk item is under control, as well as to indicate that a new,
previously unidentified item may be becoming a risk.
The following is an example that discusses tracking the two personnel issues discussed above,
staff level and staff experience.

Assume that personnel shortfalls were originally identified as a risk item, and that the project
manager is closely tracking his personnel. The project manager should have plotted the planned
staffing profiles for the total staff and for the experienced staff at the beginning of the contract.
As time passes, some deviation from the curve is expected, but too great a deviation is cause for
alarm. A program that does not have enough experienced personnel or that tries to bring too
many into the project toward the end of the schedule is a project that is at risk. When looking at
the shape of the planned software staff curve, it should grow through the requirements and
design phases, peak in code and early test, and begin to fall as acceptance and integration tests
are completed. The profile of the experienced staff should be high in the beginning of the
project, decrease slightly during coding and increase again during test. The ratio of experienced
personnel should be near to 3:1, but never exceed 6:1.
As discussed above, the staff level refers to the ability of the developer to maintain a sufficient
level of staff to complete the project timely. In addition to tracking total staff, tracking experienced
staff is also important as they are crucial to maintaining schedule and product quality. Finally
tracking staff losses is important because staff turnover can impact the stability of the work
force. Even though a team member leaves and is quickly replaced, there is usually an impact due
to the earning curve while that new person is trained and acclimates to the existing team.

This sample chart is made up of only three measures, total staff level, experienced staff level, and
unexpected staff losses. Nevertheless, it shows several things to a manager. Initially, the total
number of personnel on the project was lagging behind the estimate, but the number of
experienced personnel working on it was higher than planned. This could mean that there were
problems getting enough personnel to work on the project at first and the shortage was being
covered by a higher than planned number of experienced staff. It could also mean that the
schedules can be maintained and the project is on track, but it may be at the expense of cost, since
experienced personnel are usually more expensive. The manager should continue to monitor
this.
The number of unplanned losses is nominal and does not seem to indicate any problems or
risks. However, the number of experienced personnel is beginning to fall faster than the unplanned
turnover rate. This may be a risk if the project is starting into the testing phase. Again, the
manager may want to look at other measures or begin to track this item more closely.

There are variations of this metric that can also be used to give the manager further insights.
These include reporting staffing separately for each development task, e.g., QA, CM, or testing;
and reporting staffing separately for special skills, e.g., Ada, client-server, or database
development.
Normally, understaffing as seen in Figure indicates a possible schedule slippage that must be
further tracked. The manager would do well to also look at the schedule and other indicators to
assess the impact. If the project does continue to slip due to a personnel shortage, adding new
personnel is not necessarily the answer, as this may add further delays due to the learning curve.
If the turnover rate becomes too high, this could also become a major risk due to lack of
continuity, impairing project knowledge and eroding the knowledge-base.
Since risk identification is an ongoing process, measures like the above can periodically be
reviewed if other indicators point to staffing problems. Managers must be careful to include any
experience obtained on the current project is an interim analysis is done.

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