Page 86 - DLIS402_INFORMATION_ANALYSIS_AND_REPACKAGING

Unit 3: Information Products

Human activities have increased the concentration of these atmospheric greenhouse gases, and Notes
although the changes are relatively small, the equilibrium maintained by the atmosphere is delicate,
and so the effect of these changes is significant. The world’s most important greenhouse gas is
carbon dioxide, a by-product of the burning of fossil fuels. Since the time of the Industrial Revolution
about 200 years ago, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has increased from
about 280 parts per million to 370 parts per million, an increase of around 30%.
On the basis of available data, climate scientists are now projecting an average global temperature
rise over this century of 2.0 to 4.5°C. This compared with 0.6°C over the previous century—about a
500% increase... This could lead to changing, and for all emissions scenarios more unpredictable,
weather patterns around the world, less frost days, more extreme events (droughts and storm or
flood disasters), and warmer sea temperatures and melting glaciers causing sea levels to rise.
Professional engineers commonly deal with risk, and frequently have to make judgments based on
incomplete data. The available evidence suggests very strongly that human activities have already
begun to make significant changes to the earth’s climate, and that the long-term risk of delaying
action is greater than the cost of avoiding/minimising the risk.
American Association of Petroleum Geologists
As of June 2007, the American Association of Petroleum Geologists (AAPG) Position Statement on
climate change stated:
the AAPG membership is divided on the degree of influence that anthropogenic CO has on recent
2
and potential global temperature increases ... Certain climate simulation models predict that the
warming trend will continue, as reported through NAS, AGU, AAAS and AMS. AAPG respects
these scientific opinions but wants to add that the current climate warming projections could fall
within well-documented natural variations in past climate and observed temperature data. These
data do not necessarily support the maximum case scenarios forecast in some models.
Prior to the adoption of this statement, the AAPG was the only major scientific organization that
rejected the finding of significant human influence on recent climate, according to a statement by
the Council of the American Quaternary Association. Explaining the plan for a revision, AAPG
president Lee Billingsly said.
Members have threatened to not renew their memberships... if AAPG does not alter its position on
global climate change.... And I have been told of members who already have resigned in previous
years because of our current global climate change position.... The current policy statement is not
supported by a significant number of our members and prospective members.
AAPG President John Lorenz announced the sunsetting of AAPG’s Global Climate Change
Committee in January 2010. The AAPG Executive Committee determined:
Climate change is peripheral at best to our science…. AAPG does not have credibility in that
field…….and as a group we have no particular knowledge of global atmospheric geophysics.
American Association of State Climatologists
The 2001 statement from the American Association of State Climatologists noted the difficulties
with predicting impacts due to climate change, while acknowledging that human activities are
having an effect on climate:
Climate prediction is difficult because it involves complex, nonlinear interactions among all
components of the earth’s environmental system.... The AASC recognizes that human activities
have an influence on the climate system. Such activities, however, are not limited to greenhouse gas
forcing and include changing land use and sulfate emissions, which further complicates the issue of
climate prediction. Furthermore, climate predictions have not demonstrated skill in projecting future
variability and changes in such important climate conditions as growing season, drought, flood-
producing rainfall, heat waves, tropical cyclones and winter storms.

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