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O;f"V vFkZ'kkL=k osQ fl¼kar




                    uksV                   gSa vFkkZr~ os de dher ij gh oLrq dh vfèkd ek=kk [kjhnrh gSaA blfy, fdlh ,d oLrq osQ
                                           fy, ek¡x oØ dk <yku mQij dh vksj gks ldrk gS] ijarq vfèkdrj oszQrkvksa osQ fy, bldk <yku
                                           ½.kkRed gh cuk jgsxkA ;fn Hkkoqd oszQrk cktkj esa csph xbZ oqQy ek=kk dk osQoy FkksM+k izfr'kr
                                           gh [kjhnrs gSa] ek¡x oØ dk <yku fiQj Hkh uhps dh vksj vFkok ½.kkRed gksxk] cs'kd oqQN
                                           (Hkkoqd) oszsQrkvksa osQ fy, bld <yku èkukRed gh D;ksa u gksA
                                       (b) dHkh&dHkh] lHkh miHkksDRkk vfèkd dher ij oLrq dh vfèkd ek=kk [kjhn dj viuk
                                           ludh (Erratic) ;k vfLFkj (;k vfoosd'khy) O;ogkj fn[kyk ldrs gSaA blosQ vuq:i
                                           ,sls volj gks ldrs gSa fd tc izR;sd miHkksDrk dk O;ogkj ek¡x fl¼kar osQ ekunaM@izfreku
                                           (Norm) ls esy ughaa [kkrk gksA ijarq ;gk¡ Hkh ,dne ;g fu"d"kZ ughaa fudky ysuk pkfg, fd
                                           ek¡x dk fu;e ;k ek¡x fl¼kar O;kogkfjd :i ls vliQy gks tkrk gSA ;gk¡ miHkksDrk osQ mijksDr
                                           ludh O;ogkj osQ lanHkZ esa mldk vfoosd'khy O;ogkj cktkj esa mu vfèkdka'k oszQrkvksa osQ
                                           O;ogkj }kjk jí ;k oSaQly gks tkrk gS tks lkekU; O;ogkj okys (Normal Behaviour)
                                           miHkksDrk gSaA
                                    2- ek¡x vkSj #fp cnyrh gS  (Demand and Taste Changes)μ^#fp;k¡* dksbZ ek=kkRed
                                       pj@ifjorhZ (Quantitative Variable) ughaa gSA fdlh oLrq osQ fy, ek¡x ij blosQ izHkko dks ekiuk
                                       laHko ughaa gSA vfèkd ls vfèkd ge osQoy bldk vuqeku gh yxk ldrs gSaA ijarq vuqeku
                                       (Guessing) ek¡x fl¼kar dh lPpkbZ vFkok vkSfpR; ij ,d iz'ufpÉ NksM+ tkrk gSA ;g ml fu;e
                                       ij Hkh iz'u fpÉ NksM+ tkrk gS tks dher vkSj ek¡xh xbZ ek=kk osQ chp foijhr lacaèk dks crykrk gSA

                                  mnkgj.k (Illustration)

                                  bl fLFkfr dks fp=k 4-41 esa ns[ksaa] ;g fp=k bl ekU;rk ij cuk;k x;k gS fd vU; dhersa (;k lacafèkr oLrqvksa
                                  dh dhersa) rFkk miHkksDrk dh vk; fLFkj gSA fp=k 4-41 nks laHkkoukvksa dks izdV djrk gSμ

                                  laHkkouk 1 (Possibility 1)μek¡xh xbZ ek=kk dk dher ls èkukRed lacaèk gS] blfy, ek¡x oØ d  ij fcaanq
                                                                                                        3
                                  ‘a’ ls ¯cnq ‘b’ ij f[kldko] ;g fxÝiQu oLrqvksa osQ ekeys ;k fo"k; dh Hkk¡fr gSA
                                  laHkkouk 2 (Possibility 2)μoLrq dh dher esa o`f¼ gksus osQ lkFk miHkksDrk dh #fp;ksa dk oLrq osQ
                                  vuqowQy dkiQh LFkkukarj.k gks tkrk gSA blosQ iQyLo:i ek¡x oØ d  ls d  LFkkukarj.k gksus osQ dkj.k ¯cnq
                                                                                   1    2
                                  ‘a’ ls ¯cnq ‘b’ ij LFkkukarj.k gksrk gSA ;g lkekU; oLrqvksa dk ekeyk ;k mnkgj.k gSA


                                                                     fp=k 4-41

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