Page 355 - DECO504_STATISTICAL_METHODS_IN_ECONOMICS_HINDI

bdkbZ—24% dky&Js.kh dh fof/ % U;wure oxZ jhfr osQ fl¼kar ,oa mlosQ vuqiz;ksx

O uksV
⇒ = S × C × I vYidkyhu mPpkopu
T
O
;k = C × I pØh; ifjorZu (S u gks rks)
T
vFkok izfr'kr esa
O
pØh; ifjroZu = × 100
T
O
o"kZ ewy lead miufr × 100
T
O T
1990 24 21.42 112.04
1991 19 22.08 86.05
1992 25 22.75 109.89
1993 24 23.42 102.48
1994 23 24.08 95.51
1995 20 24.75 80.80
1996 25 25.42 98.35
1997 30 26.08 115.03
— —

24-6 U;wure oxZ jhfr osQ vuqiz;ksx (Application of Least Square Method)

jhfr osQ vuqiz;ksxμ,d xf.krh; fofèk gksus osQ dkj.k ;g miufr&ekiu dh loZJs"B jhfr ekuh tkrh gSA (1)
bl jhfr osQ }kjk izkIr miufr&ewY; vfèkd mi;qDr vkSj okLrfodrk osQ fudV gksrs gSa D;ksafd mudk ifjx.ku
lqfuf'pr xf.krh; fl¼kUrksa osQ vkèkkj ij fd;k tkrk gSA (2) bl jhfr }kjk izkIr dh xbZ js[kk] loksZi;qDr js[kk
(line of best fit) gksrh gS D;ksafd ;g og js[kk gS ftlls èkukRed ,oa Í.kkRed fopyuksa dk ;ksx 'kwU; gksrk
2
gS vFkkZr~ Σ(Y – Y ) = 0 vkSj fopyu&oxks± dk ;ksx Σ(Y – Y ) U;wure (least) gksrk gSA (3) ;g jhfr O;fDrxr
c
c
vfHkufr (bias) ls loZFkk eqDr gSA (4) fiQj] bl jhfr dh lgk;rk ls vxys o"kks± osQ fy, loksZi;qDr iwokZuqeku
yxk, tk ldrs gSaA (5) bl jhfr osQ }kjk lHkh o"kks± osQ fy, miufr&ewY; izkIr fd, tk ldrs gSa tcfd vU;
jhfr;ksa] tSls py ekè; jhfr esa ,slk gksuk lEHko ugha gSA
jhfr dh ifjlhek,¡ (Limitations)μ(1) bl jhfr dh x.ku&fØ;k cgqr tfVy gS vkSj blesa le; Hkh vfèkd
yxrk gSA (2) bl jhfr dk iz;ksx o`f¼&oØksa osQ vUok;kstu esa ugha fd;k tk ldrk tcfd mudk vk£Fkd ,oa
O;kolkf;d {ks=k esa fo'ks"k egRo gSA (3) ,d mi;qDr lehdj.k dk pquko u gksus ij fudkys x, fu"d"kZ
HkzekRed fl¼ gksrs gSaA (4) ,d xf.krh;&jhfr gksus osQ dkj.k blesa yphysiu dk vHkko gSA ;fn Js.kh esa ,d
ewY; tksM+ ;k ?kVk fn;k tk, rks u;k miufr&lehdj.k nqckjk izkIr djuk iM+rk gS tcfd py&ekè; jhfr esa
,slk ugha gksrkA (5) bl jhfr }kjk iwokZuqeku osQoy nh?kZdkyhu fopj.kksa ;k miufr ij vkèkkfjr gksrs gSa vkSj
ekSleh] pØh; rFkk vfu;fer fopj.kksa ij dksbZ è;ku ugha fn;k tkrkA è;ku jgs] miufr&vkèkkfjr iwokZuqeku
(forecasts or predictions) rHkh loksZi;qDr gks ldrs gSa tc Js.kh osQ pjksa vkSj le; osQ chp iQyukRed
(functional) lEcUèk gks vU;Fkk buosQ fu"d"kZ [krjukd gks ldrs gSaA loZJh fjfXxyeSu ,oa Úkbch
(Riggleman and Frisbee) dk Hkh dguk gS fd ¶miufr&vUok;kstu dh ;g jhfr vius esa dksbZ nks"k jfgr uhfr

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