Page 350 - DECO504_STATISTICAL_METHODS_IN_ECONOMICS_HINDI

vFkZ'kkL=k esa lkaf[;dh; fof/;k¡

uksV U;wure oxZ y?kq&jhfr }kjk miufr ewY;ksa dk ifjdyu
t − 1994 5
.
o"kZ vk; oxZ xq.kuiQy miufr ewY;
.
05
(yk[k #-) X × Y (Trend Values)
X Y X X 2 XY a + bX = Y c

1991 38 – 7 49 – 266 65.75 + 3.67 × – 7 = 40.06
1992 40 – 5 25 – 200 65.75 + 3.67 × – 5 = 47.40
1993 65 – 3 9 – 195 65.75 + 3.67 × – 3 = 54.74
1994 72 – 1 1 – 72 65.75 + 3.67 × – 1 = 62.08
1995 69 + 1 1 + 69 65.75 + 3.67 × 1 = 69.42
1996 60 + 3 9 + 180 65.75 + 3.67 × 3 = 76.76
1997 87 + 5 25 + 435 65.75 + 3.67 × 5 = 84.10
1998 95 + 7 49 + 665 65.75 + 3.67 × 7 = 01.44

N = 8 526 ΣX = 0 168 + 616 ΣYc = ΣY = 526.00

ljy miufr js[kh; lehdj.kμ Y = a + bX
ΣY 526 ΣXY 616
a = = = 65.75 b = = = 3.67
N 8 ΣX 2 168
vr% vHkh"V lehdj.kμ Y = 65.75 + 3.67X

ewy&fcUnq = 1994.5, X bdkbZ = vkèkk o"kZ] Y bdkbZ = vk; yk[k #-
.
.
2000 − 1994 5 55
o"kZ 2000 osQ fy, iwokZuqekfur vk; X = = + 11
.
05 05
.
or Y = 65.75 + (3.67 × 11) = 106.12
vr% 2000 o"kZ dh iwokZuqekfur vk; 106.12 yk[k #- gSA
24-4 le;kofèk dk vfu;fer gksuk (Irregular Time-Period)

tc X-Js.kh vFkkZr~ le;kofèk vfu;fer gksrh gS rc y?kq&jhfr }kjk fopyu ysus ij fopyuksa dk ;ksx vfèkdrj
'kwU; ugha gksrk (ΣX ≠ 0)A ,slh fLFkfr esa a rFkk b dk eku izR;{kr% izlkekU; lehdj.kksa }kjk Kkr djuk iM+rk
gSA

;fn X-Js.kh ;k le;kofèk vfu;fer gS ijarq fopyuksa dk ;ksx fiQj Hkh 'kwU; gks
tk, (ΣX = 0), rc ‘a’ rFkk ‘b’ dk eku y?kq jhfr }kjk Kkr fd;k tk ldrk gSA

mnkgj.kk (Illustration) 6: ,d phuh fey osQ mRiknu osQ lead uhps fn, x, gSaA (i) U;wure oxZ jhfr }kjk
ljy js[kh; miufr dk vklatu dhft, rFkk miufr ewY; Kkr dhft,A (ii) miufr dks fujLr dhft, rFkk
crkb, fd dky&Js.kh osQ vU; dkSu&ls la?kVd 'ks"k jg x, gSaA (iii) phuh&mRiknu esa o`f¼ dh ekfld nj D;k
gS\
o"kZ : 1973 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1982
mRiknu : 77 88 94 85 91 98 90

344 LOVELY PROFESSIONAL UNIVERSITY