Page 347 - DECO504_STATISTICAL_METHODS_IN_ECONOMICS_HINDI

bdkbZ—24% dky&Js.kh dh fof/ % U;wure oxZ jhfr osQ fl¼kar ,oa mlosQ vuqiz;ksx

gy (Solution): uksV
miufr ewY;ksa (Trend Values) dk vkdyu (y?kq jhfr)

o"kZ mRiknu le;&fopyu fopyuksa X o Y miufr ewY;
(000 Qnt.) ewy&1964 dk oxZ dh xq.kk

Y X X 2 XY a + bX = Yc

1961 80 – 3 9 – 240 90 + (2 × – 3) = 84
1962 90 – 2 4 – 180 90 + (2 × – 2) = 86
1963 92 – 1 1 – 92 90 + (2 × – 1) = 88
1964 83 0 0 0 90 + (2 × 0) = 90
1965 94 + 1 1 + 94 90 + (2 × 1) = 92
1966 99 + 2 4 + 198 90 + (2 × 2) = 94
1967 92 + 3 9 + 276 90 + (2 × 3) = 96
Total 630 0 28 588 – 512 = 56 630

2
N = 7, ΣY = 630, ΣX = 0, ΣX = 28, ΣXY = 56
loZizFke ‘a’ rFkk ‘b’ osQ ewY; Kkr fd;s tk;saxsA
ΣY 630 ΣXY 56
a = or = 90 b = = = 2
N 7 ΣX 2 28
Q ΣY = Na Q ΣXY = bΣX 2
miufr lehdj.kμY = 90 + 2X
ewy = 1964; X bdkbZ = 1 o"kZ] Y bdkbZ = gtkj oqQUry

ljy js[kh; miufr
100
ORIGINAL VALUES
ORIGINAL VALUES
TREND VALUES
TREND VALUES
97.5
Y = 90+ 2X
Y = 90+ 2X
ORIGIN = 1960
ORIGIN = 1960
95
mRiknu (gtkj oqQUry) 92.5
90
87.5

85
82.5

80
0
1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967
o"kZ

fp=k 24-2- js[kh; izo`fÙk

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