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Statistics

Notes 7. From the following data calculate the 4-yearly moving average and determine the trend
values. Find short-term fluctuations, assuming multiplicative model, and indicate their
composition. Plot the original data and the trend values on a graph.
Year : 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
Value : 50.0 36.5 43.0 44.5 38.9 38.1 32.6 41.7 41.1 33.8

Answers: Self Assessment

1. (i) time series (ii) trend (iii) best (iv) linear (v) proportion (vi) trend, origin.

30.6 Further Readings

Books Sheldon M. Ross, Introduction to Probability Models, Ninth Edition, Elsevier
Inc., 2007.
Jan Pukite, Paul Pukite, Modeling for Reliability Analysis, IEEE Press on
Engineering of Complex Computing Systems, 1998.

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