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Unit 5: Risk and Return Analysis



            6.   The government increases customs duty on the material used by the company.       Notes

            7.    The company is not able to obtain adequate quantity of raw materials from the suppliers.
            The other part of the risk arises on account of economywide uncertainties and the tendency of
            individual securities to move together with changes in the market. This part of the risk cannot
            be reduced through diversification and it is called systematic or markets risk. The examples of
            systematic risk are:
            1.   The government changes the interest rate policy.
            2.   The corporate tax rate is increased.
            3.   The government resorts to massive deficit financing.
            4.   The inflation rate increases.

            5.   The Reserve Bank of India announces a restrictive credit policy.




               Notes  Investors are exposed to market risk even when they hold well diversified portfolios
              of securities.

            Total risk, which in the case of an individual security, is the variance (or standard deviation) of
            its return can be divided into two parts.
                      Total risk = Systematic risk + Unsystematic risk

            Self Assessment

            Fill in the blanks:
            10.  The extent of benefits of portfolio diversification depends  on the ……………..between
                 returns of securities.
            11.  Part of  the risk that cannot be reduced through diversification  is called  ……………or
                 markets risk.

            12.  The ……………………..will always be between +1 and –1.
            5.5 Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)

            CAPM provides a framework for measuring the systematic risk of an individual security and
            relates it to the systematic risk of a well diversified portfolio. In the context of CAPM, the risk of
            an individual security is defined as the volatility of the security’s return vis-à-vis the return of a
            market portfolio. The risk (volatility) of individual securities is measured by  (beta). Beta is a
            measure of a security’s risk relative to the market portfolio. Since diversifiable risk does not
            matter, beta is thus a measure of systematic risk of a security.
            Risk free security has no volatility and it has a zero beta:
            The Capital Asset Pricing Model is given in equataion:
                            K  = R  +   × (km – Rf)
                             1     f  1
            Where           K  = required rate of an asset I
                             1
                            Rf = risk-free rate of return, commonly measured by return on treasury
                                 bills or government securities
                              = beta coefficient or index of non diversifiable risk for the asset I
                             1
                           Km = market rate of return on the market portfolio of assets



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