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Unit 3: HR Planning, Recruitment, Selection, Placement and Induction

organizational objectives. The ever-changing environments in which organizations operate Notes
contribute to the problem of forecasting. There are two approaches to HR forecasting:
quantitative and qualitative.
Quantitative Approach: This approach involves the use of statistical or mathematical
techniques. Though there are many methods, one of the methods is trend analysis, which
forecasts employment requirements on the basis of some organizational index. Trend analysis
is done by following several steps as given below:

• First, select an appropriate business factor. The best available factor could be sales
which are used as a predictor in trend analysis.
• Second, we have to plot the historical trend of the business factor in relation to the
number of employees. The ratio of the employees to the business factor will provide
labour productivity. For example sales per employee.
• Third, compute the productivity ratio for at least the past five years. The more the
number of years the better it is to compute the trend analysis.
• Fourth, calculate the HR demand by multiplying the business factor by the productivity
ratio.
• Last, project the human resources demand out to the target year.
• Other, more sophisticated statistical planning methods include modelling or multiple
predictive techniques. Advanced technology and computer software have made
forecasting more accurate and affordable even to small businesses.
Qualitative Approach: In contrast to quantitative approaches, qualitative approaches to
forecasting attempt to reconcile the interest, abilities, and aspirations of individual employees
with current and future staffing needs of an organization. Qualitative approach relies on the
opinions of supervisors, departmental managers and experts. The Delphi method, a qualitative
forecasting method attempts to decrease the subjectivity of forecasts by soliciting and
summarizing the judgements of a pre-selected group of individuals. The final forecast
represents a composite group judgement.

The emphasis of HR should be on filling future vacancies with right
people rather than merely matching existing people with existing jobs.

3.1.10 Techniques of HR Supply Forecasting
In forecasting the supply of employees, an organization has to forecast its future requirements
of employees. It must determine if there are sufficient numbers and types of employees
available to staff the anticipated openings. The process involves both tracking current levels
and making future projections.
Internal Labour Supply:
(a) Staffing Table: An internal supply analysis begins with the preparation of staffing tables.
A staffing table is a graphic representation of all jobs in the organization along with
the number of employees currently occupying those jobs and future employment
requirements.
(b) Marko Analysis: Marko analysis is a method for tracking the pattern of employee
movements through various jobs. It shows the actual number and the percentage of
employees who remain in each job from one period to the next as well as the
proportions of those who are promoted, demoted, transferred or who exit the
organization.

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