Page 457 - DECO401_MICROECONOMIC_THEORY_HINDI

bdkbZ 28 % tksf[ke rFkk vfuf'prrk dk vFkZ'kkL=k

----------------------
6- fdlh ?kVuk dh laHkkouk mlosQ ?kfVr (ckjackjrk) gksus dh la[;k dk gksrh gSA uksV
(v) vuqikr (c) izfr'kr (l) ckjackjrk (n) buesa ls dksbZ ugha
7- ,d tksf[kefiz; O;fDr laHkkouk osQ i{k esa u gksus ij Hkh [ksyus osQ fy, jgrk gSμ
(v) rRij (c) fuHkZj (l) cspSu (n) buesa ls dksbZ ughaA

ekU;rk,¡ (Assumptions)

;g fo'ys"k.k ekurk gS fdμ
1- O;fDr;ksa dh larqf"V èku ls tqM+h gksrh gSA
2- mi;ksfxrk mldh larqf"V dk ,d eki gSA
3- O;fDr osQ ikl ,d fuf'pr èkujkf'k gksrh gSA
4- og flDdk mNkyus okyk [ksy [ksyrk gSA
5- og lHkh laHkkO;rkvksa (probabilities) dks tkurk gSA
6- mlosQ pquko fuf'pr gksrs gSaA

7- og visf{kr mi;ksfxrk dks vfèkdre djuk pkgrk gS vFkkZr~ og vfèkdre visf{kr mi;ksfxrk vFkok
Hkqxrku dk pquko djrk gSA

;s ekU;rk,¡ nh gksus ij] ,d tq, osQ fo"k; esa lksfp,] ftlesa flDdk mNkydj f[kykM+h dks Hkqxrku fd;k
tkrk gSA eku yhft, fd ,d O;fDr osQ ikl #- 10,000 gSa rFkk #- 5,000 nk¡o ij yxkrk gSA flDdk mNkyus
ij ;fn 'kh"kZ (head) vkrk gS rks og #- 5,000 dekrk gS vU;Fkk iV (tail) vkus ij og #- 5,000 gkj
tkrk gSA ;fn og 'krZ ugha yxkrk rks fuf'pr gh mlosQ ikl #- 10,000 jgsaxsA ;g fLFkfr fuf'pr laHkkouk
(certain prospect) dgykrh gSA ysfdu ;fn og 'krZ yxkrk gS rks ;k rks og 0-5 thrus dh laHkkO;rk
ij #- 15,000 ik,xk (10,000 #- + 5,000 #-) vFkok 0-5 laHkkO;rk osQ vuqlkj gkjus ij 5,000 #- ik,xk
(10,000 #- – 5,000 #-)A ;g fLFkfr vfuf'pr laHkkouk dgykrh gSA bldk vFkZ gS fd izR;sd ifj.kke
dh laHkkO;rk 50 izfr'kr gksrh gSA bl [ksy dk visf{kr ewY; (expected value) vFkok Hkqxrku (payoff)
gSμ
Ev = 0-5 (#- 5,000) + 0-5 (#- 15,000) = #- 2,500 + #- 75,00 = #- 10,000-
vc bl fo'ys"k.k dks mi;ksfxrk ls lac¼ izR;sd #i;s osQ visf{kr ewY; (Hkqxrku) dks rhu izdkj osQ tksf[ke
O;ogkjksa ij yxkrs gSaA

VkLd tksf[ke vfèkeku osQ lacaèk esa vius fopkj O;Dr dhft,A

tksf[ke rVLFk (Risk Neutral)
tksf[ke osQ izfr rVLFk O;gkj dks fp=k 28-1 esa n'kkZ;k x;k gSS ftlesa #i;ksa esa eqnzk {kSfrt v{k ij rFkk izR;sd
visf{kr ewY; ls lac¼ mi;ksfxrk dks vuqyac v{k ij n'kkZ;k x;k gSA #- 10,000 dh fuf'pr laHkkouk osQ
lkFk visf{kr mi;ksfxrk 16 gSA vfuf'pr laaHkkouk osQ lkFk visf{kr mi;ksfxrk (expected utility) gSμ
Eu = 0-5 (8) + 0-5 (24) = 4 + 12 = 16-
ge ikrs gSa fd [ksy osQ tksf[ke rVLFk ekeys esa] ,d fuf'pr laHkkouk ls tqM+h mi;ksfxrk] bldh vfuf'pr
laHkkouk ls tqM+h mi;ksfxrk osQ cjkcj gksrh gS vFkkZr~ 16 = 16- ;gk¡ nksuksa osQ visf{kr ekSfnzd ewY; leku

LOVELY PROFESSIONAL UNIVERSITY 451