Page 232 - DECO504_STATISTICAL_METHODS_IN_ECONOMICS_HINDI

vFkZ'kkL=k esa lkaf[;dh; fof/;k¡

uksV gS ijUrq fdlh fuf'pr dher osQ fn, gksus ij ekax fdruh gksxh] ;g vuqeku osQoy izrhixeu (lehdj.k) }kjk
gh yxk;k tk ldrk gS u fd lglEcU/ xq.kkad }kjkA bl izdkj izrhixeu fo'ys"k.k nks pjksa osQ chp
vkSlr&lEcU/ (Average relationship) dks O;Dr djrk gS vkSj blls iwokZuqeku ;k Hkfo";ok.kh (Estimation
or Prediction) lEHko gks ikrh gSA

14-1 lglaca/ fo'ys"k.k (Correlation Analysis)

nks pjksa osQ chp esa ik;s tkus okys lEcU/ dh ek=kk dk fooj.k lglEcU/ fo'ys"k.k osQ vUrxZr vkrk gSA
lglEcU/ fo'ys"k.k ls vfHkizk; ;g gS fd lEcfU/r pjksa esa fdl izdkj dk vkSj fdruk lEcU/ gSA lglEcU/
fo'ys"k.k ij vk/kfjr vuqeku vf/d fo'oluh; ,oa okLrfodrk osQ fudV gksrs gSaA
lglEcU/ osQ xgu vè;;u gsrq fuEufyf[kr ckrksa ij è;ku nsuk vko';d gSμ
(1) izR;{k lEcU/ (Direct Relationship)μnksuksa leadekykvksa esa izR;{k dk;Z&dj.k lEcU/ gks ldrk gSA
oqQN ?kVuk,a ,slh gksrh gSa fd os fdlh osQ dkj.ko'k gksrh gSaA mnkgj.k osQ fy,] ewY; vkSj ekax esa izk;%
Í.kkRed lEcU/ gksrk gSA bldk rkRi;Z ;g gS fd ewY; osQ ifjorZu osQ dkj.k gh ekax esa ifjorZu gksrs
gSaA

(2) lglEcU/ dk vU; dksbZ lekiorZd dkj.k (Correlation due to any other Common Cause)μ;g
Hkh lEHko gks ldrk gS fd nksuksa Jsf.k;ksa esa izR;{k lEcU/ u gksdj fdlh vU; lekiorZd dkj.k
(common cause) osQ ifj.kkeLo:i ,slk gks ldrk gSA mnkgj.k osQ fy,] eksVj dkj ,oa VsyhiQksu nksuksa
esa /ukRed lglEcU/ gksus dk ;g vk'k; dnkfi ugha gS fd izR;sd eksVj dkj okyk vfuok;Z :i ls
VsyhiQksu Hkh j[krk gSA okLro esa vk; rhljk ,slk dkj.k gS tks nksuksa dks izHkkfor djrk gSA vFkkZr~ vf/
d vk; okys gh lkekU;r% dkj ,oa VsyhiQksu j[krs gSaA
(3) ijLij izfrfØ;k (Mutual Reaction)μ;g loZnk vko';d ugha gS fd ,d Js.kh gh nwljh dks
izHkkfor djs] ;g lEHko gks ldrk gS fd nksuksa leadekyk,a vkil esa gh ,d&nwljs ls izHkkfor gksaA ,slh
fLFkfr esa ;g Kkr djuk dfBu gks tkrk gS fd dkSu&lh dkj.k gS vkSj dkSu&lh ifj.kkeA okLro esa nksuksa
gh dkj.k gks ldrh gSa vkSj nksuksa gh ifj.kkeA mnkgj.k osQ fy,] vk; vkSj f'k{kk ij O;; osQ eè; blh
izdkj dk lEcU/ gksrk gSA vk; c<+us ij f'k{kk ij O;; c<+rk gS vkSj f'k{kk c<+us ij vk; c<+rh gSA
vr% ;s nksuksa vU;ksU;kfJr gSaA

(4) fujFkZd lEcU/ (Useless or Nonsense Spurious Correlation)μ;fn nks pjksa osQ chp lglEcU/
ik;k tkrk gS] ijUrq dkj.k&ifj.kke lEcU/ ugha ik;k tkrk rks ml lglEcU/ dks fujFkZd lglEcU/
(useless or nonsense or spurious correlation) dgk tkrk gSA dHkh&dHkh lexz dh nks leadekyk,a
lEcfU/r ugha gksrha] ijUrq nSo;ksx osQ dkj.k muosQ fun'kZuksa esa lglEcU/ ik;k tkrk gS rks bl izdkj
dk lEcU/ fujFkZd gksxkA mnkgj.k osQ fy,] lSykfu;ksa (Tourists) dh la[;k esa o`f¼ vkSj vfèkd phuh
mRiknu esa /ukRed lEcU/ gS] rks ;g lEcU/ lkFkZd ugha dgyk;sxk oju~ ;g csdkj gksxkA
bl izdkj] ;fn Hkkjr eas dks;ys dk ewY; de gks tk;s vkSj lkFk gh vesfjdk esa Lo.kZ dk ewY; de
gks tk;s rks ;gka lglEcU/ Li"V gksus ij Hkh lglEcU/ ugha dgyk;sxkA bldk dkj.k ;g gS fd ,slk
nSo;ksx ls gqvk gSA
mi;qZDr foospu ls Li"V gS fd lglEcU/ dh fo|ekurk dk irk cM+s xgu fo'ys"k.k ls gh yxk;k tk ldrk
gSA izks- ckW¯MxVu osQ 'kCnksa esa] ¶tc dHkh nks ;k vf/d lewgksa vFkok oxks± vFkok leadekykvksa esa
1
fuf'pr lEcU/ fo|eku gks rks muesa lglEcU/ dk gksuk dgk tkrk gSA¸ izks- MsouiksVZ osQ erkuqlkj]
¶lglEcU/ dk lEiw.kZ fo"k; i`Fko~Q fo'ks"krkvksa osQ eè; ik;s tkus okys ml ikjLifjd lEcU/ dh vksj laosQr
2
djrk gS] ftlosQ vuqlkj os oqQN lhek rd lkFk&lkFk ifjo£rr gksus dh izo`fÙk j[krh gSaA¸ MkW- ckW¯MxVu osQ
erkuqlkj] ¶;fn lkjs izek.k ;g laosQr djrs gSa (lglEcU/ dh mifLFkfr osQ lkjs izek.k D;ksa u gksa\) fd (nksuksa

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