Page 259 - DCAP601_SIMULATION_AND_MODELING

Unit 13: Simulation Languages (I)

Notes
Figure 13.7

In Figure 13.7, an illustration of an “effective” mosquito population size (see text), with the
parameter values N = 500, D = 10, D = 20, WN = 15, IM = 0.01, and VS = 0.95 or 0.86.
H V H
Results – Prevalence in Humans

Figure 13.8 shows the overall prevalence of infection in humans as a function of mosquito
survivorship, the duration of human infectivity (host window) and the duration of human
immunity to reinfection. Each response surface shows 231 prevalence points, each of which is an
average of 100 simulation runs, resulting in a standard deviation of 0.01 or less. We have shown
the best-fit planes not to suggest the existence of any underlying linear process, but simply to
allow comparisons among the average effects of each parameter. The average effects on the
overall prevalence of infection in humans of variations in vector mortality and variations in the
duration of host infectivity are of similar magnitude, while the duration of host immunity is
less influential.
Figure 13.8

(A) (B)

(C) (D)

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