Page 260 - DCAP601_SIMULATION_AND_MODELING

Simulation and Modelling

Notes In Figure 13.8, Plots of overall malaria prevalence in a human population, with parameter
values D = 10 and D = 20, and initial conditions N = 500, N = 5000 and V = 2500.
V H H V B

Did u know? Did you know the range of values of the remaining temporal parameters of
a plausible mean value?

50% to 150%
Comparisons with Differential-equation Models

Figure 13.9 illustrates the dynamics of classic differential-equation and differential-delay-
equation “compartment” models analogous to the discrete-event model; the models we have
constructed are described in detail in the Appendix, as is Macdonald’s model. Parameter values
for Figure were calculated such that the prevalence curves are as closely comparable as possible
to those shown in the Figure.

Figure 13.9
(A)

(B)

In Figure 13.9, an example of the time course of the overall malaria prevalence (solid lines) and
the prevalence of infectious stages (dashed lines) in a human population, in (A) classic differential-
equation and (B) differential-delay-equation “compartment”.

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