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Unit 4: Risk and Return Analysis




                                                                                                Notes
                                                                                2
             Probability (P)   Return (%) (R)   (P × R)     (R – R)        (R – R) P
                 0.05            6             0.30           - 9.5         4.5125
                 0.15           10             1.50           -5.5          4.5375
                 0.40           15             6.00           -0.5          0.1000
                 0.25           18             4.50            2.5          1.5625
                 0.10           20             2.00            4.5          2.0250
                 0.05           24             1.20            8.5          3.6125
                 1.00                        R = 15.5                         Σ(R – R) P = 16.35
                                                                          2

          Expected Return of Security X = 15.5%
          Standard Deviation of Security X

                                       σ 2 y  = 16.35
                                  = 16.35  = 4.04%
                                 y
          Calculation of expected return and standard deviation of Security Y

             Probability (P)   Return (%) (R)   (P × R)   (R –R)         (R –R) P
                                                                              2
                 0.10             5            0.50        -7.25          5.2563
                 0.20             8            1.60        -4.25          3.6125
                 0.30            12            3.60        -0.25          0.0188
                 0.25            15            3.75        2.75           1.8906
                 0.10            18            1.80        5.75           3.3063
                 0.05            20            1.00        7.75           3.0031
                                              12.25               Σ(R –R) P = 17.0876
                                                                      2

          Expected Return Security Y(R)  = 12.25%

          Standard Deviation of Security Y
                                    σ 2 y  = 17.086

                                      =  17.0876  = 4.134%
                                     y
          Analysis –  Security X has higher  expected return  and  lower level  of risk as  compared to
          Security Y.

          4.7 Return and Risk of Portfolio


          4.7.1 Return of Portfolio (Two Assets)


          The expected return from a portfolio of two or more securities is equal to the weighted average
          of the expected returns from the individual securities.
                           (R ) = W (R )+ W (R )
                             P    A  A    B  B
          Where,
                        (R ) = Expected return from a portfolio of two securities
                          P
                         W  = Proportion of funds invested in Security A
                           A



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