Page 11 - DLIS401_METHODOLOGY_OF_RESEARCH_AND_STATISTICAL_TECHNIQUES

Methodology of Research and Statistical Techniques

Notes Predict

This stage is where you must make a statement of intent and develop a strong hypothesis. This
must be testable, with aims of research being to prove or disprove this statement. At this stage,
you may express your personal opinion, favoring one side or the other. You must make a
statement predicting what you expect the final answer to be.
You must, however, keep an open mind and understand that there is a chance that you may
be wrong. Research is never about right or wrong, but about arriving at an answer, which
improves our knowledge of natural processes.

Determination of the Causes
This is often the ‘business end’ for many areas of scientific research and is where one of the
predictions is tested, usually by manipulating and controlling variables. The idea is to generate
numerical data that can determine the cause with one of the many statistical tests.
For example, a small-scale global warming study might study Antarctic ice cores to determine
the historical levels of carbon dioxide throughout history. In this experiment, time would be
the manipulated variable, showing how levels of the greenhouse gas have changed over time.
Statistical procedures are then utilized to either prove or disprove the hypothesis and prediction.
Of course, very little research gives such a black and white answer, but opens up new areas
of potential study, focusing on a specific direction.

Explain
After determining the causes, the next layer of the research process is to try to find possible
explanations of ‘Why?’ and ‘How?’ things are happening. For most areas, this stage involves
sifting through and reviewing earlier studies about similar phenomena. Most research is built
upon the work of previous researchers, so there should be a wealth of literature resources
available.
If we look at a topical example, Global Warming is an area with which most of us are familiar,
and has been the subject of thousands of studies. Intuitively, most of us would state that
humanity pumping carbon dioxide into the atmosphere is responsible for a worldwide rise in
temperatures.

The aims of research may be to establish ‘What are the underlying causes and relationships
between the different processes fueling this trend?’ In most cases, it is necessary to review
earlier research and try to separate the better quality sources from the inaccurate or poorly
designed studies.
It is equally important to take into account any opposing points of view and accept that they
may be equally valid. Explanation is about coming up with viable reasons, and you must try
to be as objective and unbiased as possible.
For example, for global warming, there is an opposing view that temperature rises are natural,
and that the effect of human society is making little difference. At this stage, personal opinion
must be put aside and both sides of the debate must be given equal credence.

New Directions
Whatever the final answer, it can be used to promote a healthy debate and discussion about
the validity of the results.
The aims of research can then be fine-tuned, or may serve to open up new areas of interest.
Either way, the store of human knowledge has been enriched and increased.

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