Page 255 - DECO402_MACROECONOMIC_THEORY_HINDI

bdkbZµ24% O;kikj pozQ % ifjHkk"kk ,oa izdkj

gSA okLro esa O;kikjh osQOky cSad lk[k ij gh fuHkZj ugha djrs cfYd vius lafpr dks"kksa vkSj futh Ïksrksa uksV
ls mèkkj&xzg.k }kjk vius O;kikj osQ fy, foÙk dk izcaèk djrs gSaA

VkLd O;kikj&pØ lacaèkh fl¼kar osQ ckjs esa vius fopkj O;Dr dhft,A

24-5 lSE;wYlu dk O;kikj&pØ ekWMy (Samuelson’s Trade Cycle Model)

izks- lSE;wYlu us ,d vofèk le;i'prk (one period lag) MPC (a) vkSj Rojd (b) osQ fofHkUu ewY; ekudj]
ik¡p fofHkUu izdkj osQ O;kikj&pØksa ls lacafèkr ,d xq.kd&Rojd ekWMy fu£er fd;k gSA lSE;wYlu ekWMy ;g
gSµ
Y = G + C +I ...(i)
t t t t
tgk¡ Y jk"Vªh; vk; (Y) gS] t le; ij tks fd ljdkjh O;; G , mi;ksx O;; C rFkk izsfjr fuos'k I dk oqQy
t t t t
tksM+ gSA
C = a Y ...(ii)
t t–1
I = b (C – C ) ...(iii)
t t t–1
lehdj.k (2) dk lehdj.k (3) esa izfrLFkkfir djus ls gesa izkIr gksrk gSµ

I = b (a Y – a Y )
t t–1 t–2
I = b a Y – b a Y ...(iv)
t t–1 t–2
G = 1 ...(v)
t
lehdj.k (2)] (4) vkSj (5) dks lehdj.k (1) esa izfrLFkkfir djus ls gesa izkIr gksrk gSµ

Y = 1 + a Y + b a Y – b a Y ...(vi)
t t–1 t–1 t–2
= 1 + a (Y + b a Y ) – b a Y
t–1 t–1 t–2
= 1 + a (1 + b ) Y – b a Y ...(vii)
t–1 t–2
lSE;wYlu osQ vuqlkj] ¶;fn gesa nks vofèk;ksa dh jk"Vªh; vk; Kkr gks] rks vxyh vofèk dh jk"Vªh; vk;] Hkkfjr
tksM+ (weighted sum) ysdj] vklkuh ls fudkyh tk ldrh gSA Hkkj] fuLlansg] lhekar miHkksx izo`fÙk osQ lkFk
lacaèk osQ pqus x, ewY;ksa ij fuHkZj djsaxsA ;g ekudj fd lhekar miHkksx izo`fÙk dk ewY; 'kwU; ls vfèkd vkSj
,d ls de (0 < a < 1) ,oa Rojd dk ewY; 'kwU; ls vfèkd (b > 0) gS] lSE;wYlu ik¡p izdkj osQ pØh;
mrkj&p<+ko dh O;k[;k djrk gS ftudk lkjka'k rkfydk 1 esa fn;k x;k gSA¸

fLFkfr 1 lSE;wYlu osQ pØh; iFk (cycleless path) dks O;Dr djrh gS D;ksafd ;g osQoy xq.kd izHkko ij
vkèkkfjr gS vkSj Rojd blesa dksbZ dk;Z ugha djrkA bls fp=k 24-2 (A) esa fn[kk;k x;k gSA
fLFkfr 2 ifjeafnr pØh; iFk (damped cyclical path) dks O;Dr djrh gS] tks LFkSfrd xq.kd Lrj osQ fxnZ
mrjrk p<+rk gS vkSj èkhjs&èkhjs ml Lrj rd cSB tkrk gS tSlk fd fp=k 24-2 (B) esa fn[kk;k x;k gSA

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