Page 304 - DECO402_MACROECONOMIC_THEORY_HINDI

lef"V&vFkZ'kkL=k osQ fl¼kar

uksV Lo&ewY;kadu (Self Assessment)

fjDr LFkkuksa dh iw£r djsa (Fill in the blanks) :
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1- tc vk£Fkd uhfr esa ifjorZu gksrk gS rks blls izk;% fujFkZd gksrs gSaA
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2- jsVsDl ifjdYiuk ij ykxw gksrh gSA

30-2 foosdiw.kZ izR;k'kk,¡ (Rational Expectations)

foosdiw.kZ izR;k'kkvksa dk fopkj loZizFke tkWu ewFk }kjk 1961 esa izLrqr fd;k x;k] ftlus ;g fopkj bathfu;jh
lkfgR; ls fy;k FkkA mldk ekWMy eq[; cktkj dh ekWM¯yx dher xfrfofèk;ksa osQ ckjs esa gSA ;fn ge ;g
ekudj pysa fd vk£Fkd ,tsaV izR;k'kkvksa dk fuekZ.k djrs le; lwpukvksa (informations) dk oqQ'ky o b"Vre
mi;ksx djrs gSa rks os izR;k'kkvksa osQ ,d ,sls fl¼kar dh jpuk djrs gSa ftlls miHkksDrk rFkk mRiknd osQ
izR;kf'kr dher ifjorZuksa ij vkèkkfjr izfrfØ;k muosQ okLrfod dher ifjorZuksa ij vkèkkfjr izfrfØ;k ij fuHkZj
djrh gSA ewFk dk dguk gS fd oqQN izR;k'kk,¡ bu vFkks± esa foosdiw.kZ gSa fd izR;k'kk,¡ rFkk ?kVuk,¡ ,d vfopkfjr
(random) =kqfV osQ dkj.k gh fHkUu gksrh gSaA
ewFk dh foosdiw.kZ izR;k'kkvksa dh dYiuk O;f"V vFkZ'kkL=k ls lacafèkr gSA blls cgqr ls vFkZ'kkL=kh larq"V ugha
FksA vr% ;g nl o"kks± rd fuf"Ø; jghA 1970 osQ n'kd osQ vkjaHk esa jkWcVZ ywdl] FkkWel lkjtsaV (Thomas
Sargent) rFkk uhy oSyl (Neil Wallace ) us bl fopkj dk mi;ksx lef"V vFkZ'kkL=k uhfr dh leL;kvksa osQ
fy, fd;kA

D;k vki tkurs gSa ewFk dh foosdiw.kZ izR;k'kkvksa dh dYIkuk O;f"V vFkZ'kkL=k ls lacafèkr gSA

30-3 foosdiw.kZ izR;k'kkvksa dh ifjdYiuk dh ewy izLFkkiuk,¡
(Basic Propositions of Rational Expectations Hypothesis)

jsVsDl ifjdYiuk ekurh gS fd vk£Fkd ,tsaV vius ikl miyCèk leLr vk£Fkd lwpuk dk mi;ksx djosQ dherksa]
vk; vkfn tSls vk£Fkd pjksa (variables) osQ Hkkoh ewY;ksa dh izR;k'kkvksa dk fuekZ.k djrs gSaA ;g lwpuk fo'ks"kdj
ljdkj dh ekSfæd vkSj jktdks"kh; uhfr;ksa tSls vk£Fkd pjksa ls tqM+s gq, lacaèkksa dks vius esa lfEefyr djrh gSA
bl rjg izR;k'kk,¡ cukus okys ;g ekurs gSa fd vk£Fkd ,tsaVksa dks Hkfo"; dh ?kVukvksa osQ ckjs esa iwjh vkSj lgh
lwpuk gksrh gSA ewFk osQ vuqlkj] lwpuk dks fdlh vU; nqyZHk lalkèku dh rjg le>uk pkfg,A blosQ vykok
foosdiw.kZ vk£Fkd ,tsaVksa dks viuh izR;k'kk,¡ cukrs le; vk£Fkd iz.kkyh osQ lacaèk esa vius Kku dk iz;ksx djuk
pkfg,A vr% jsVsDl dh ifjdYiuk ;g ekurh gS fd O;fDrxr vk£Fkd ,tsaV izR;k'kkvksa dk fuekZ.k djus esa laiw.kZ
miyCèk vkSj lqlaxr lwpuk dk mi;ksx djrs gSa vkSj os bl lwpuk dks vius foosd ls rS;kj djrs gSaA ;g ekuuk
egÙoiw.kZ gS fd jsVsDl] miHkksDrk vFkok iQeks± osQ iw.kZr% nwjn'khZ gksus ;k mudh izR;k'kk,¡ ges'kk gh gksus dks izdV
ugha djrk gSA ;g laosQr djrk gS fd ,tsaV fiNyh =kqfV;ksa ij fopkj djrs gSa vkSj ;fn vko';d gks rks ,slh
=kqfV;ksa dh iqujko`fÙk dks jksdus osQ fy, vius izR;kf'kr O;ogkj dk iqujh{k.k djrs gSaA oLrqr% ,sls vuqeku ;g
laosQr nsrs gSa fd ,tasaV fu;fer izR;kf'kr =kqfV;ksa dks nwj djus esa liQy gksrs gSa rkfd miyCèk lwpuk ls ,slh =kqfV;k¡
vkSlru vlac¼ gksaA

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