Page 303 - DECO402_MACROECONOMIC_THEORY_HINDI

bdkbZµ30% foosdiw.kZ izR;k'kkvksa dh ifjdYiuk

30-1 vuqowQyh izR;k'kk,¡ (Adaptive Expectations) uksV

jsVsDl ifjdYiuk dh ppkZ djus ls igys lef"V vFkZ'kkL=k esa iz;ksx dh xbZ vuqowQyh izR;k'kkvksa osQ vFkZ dks
le>uk vko';d gS ftldk fodkl jsVsDl fl¼kar ls igys gqvk FkkA
izR;k'kk,¡ mu vfuf'pr vk£Fkd pjksa osQ lanHkZ esa fdlh vk£Fkd ,tsaV }kjk fd, x, iwokZuqeku ;k Hkfo";okf.k;k¡
gksrh gSa tks mlosQ fu.kZ; ls lac¼ gksrh gSaA iwokZuqeku Hkwr (past) dh izo`fÙk;ksa osQ lkFk&lkFk orZeku lwpuk ,oa
vuqHko ij vkèkkfjr gksrs gSaA vk£Fkd fl¼kar dk eq[; Hkkx vk£Fkd ,tsaVksa (vFkkZr~ miHkksDrk] mRiknd vkfn)
}kjk izR;k'kkvksa osQ fuekZ.k esa muosQ foosd'khy O;ogkj dh ekU;rk ij vkèkkfjr gSA ijarq vHkh rd vFkZ'kkL=kh
ekuoh; O;ogkj osQ eki esa izR;k'kkvksa dh Hkwfedk dks 'kkfey ugha dj ik, gSaA osQU”k us izR;k'kkvksa osQ egÙo
dh ppkZ dh ijarq os bl ckr ij pqi Fks fd mudk fuekZ.k fdl izdkj gksrk gSA

uksV~l foosdiw.kZ izR;k'kkvksa dk fopkj loZizFke tkWu ewFk }kjk 1961 esa izLrqr fd;k x;k] ftlus ;g fopkj
bathfu;jh lkfgR; ls fy;k FkkA

gky osQ o"kks± esa vFkZ'kkfL=k;ksa us ekWMy fuekZ.k es vuqowQyh izR;k'kkvksa dh ifjdYiuk dk O;kid iz;ksx fd;k gSA
bl lnHkZ esa 1956 esa oSQxu (Cagen) vkSj 1957 esa usjykso (Nerlove) }kjk fd;k x;k dk;Z lokZfèkd egÙoiw.kZ
FkkA vuqowQyh izR;k'kk ifjdYiuk osQ vuqlkj] vk£Fkd ,tsaVksa dh izR;k'kk gksrh gS fd Hkfo"; Hkh fu'p; gh Hkwr
dh izo`fÙk;ksa osQ vuqlkj gksxkA os dher vk; tSls vk£Fkd pjksa osQ Hkfo"; ewY;ksa dks muosQ Hkwr ewY;ksa osQ vkSlr
osQ :i esa gksus rFkk cgqr gh èkheh xfr ls muosQ ifjo£rr gksus dh izR;k'kk djrs gSaA vk£Fkd ,stsaV bu pjksa osQ
izR;kf'kr ewY; dks muosQ orZeku ,oa Hkwr ewY;ksa osQ Hkkfjr (weighted) vkSlr osQ leku dj nsrs gSaA os viuh
izR;k'kkvksa dks fiNyh iwokZuqeku =kqfV osQ vuqlkj la'kksfèkr djrs gSaA fiNys O;ogkjksa osQ ifj.kkeLo:i gqbZ =kqfV;k¡
izR;k'kkvksa osQ fuekZ.k osQ fy, lwpuk osQ ,d egÙoiw.kZ Ïksr dk laosQr djrh gSaA ijarq ,slh izR;k'kk,¡ bl ekU;rk
ij vkèkkfjr gksrh gSa fd vk£Fkd ,tsaV mu Hkwyksa esa cgqr de ifjorZu gksus dh izR;k'kk djrs gSaA vr% tc vk£Fkd
uhfr esa ifjorZu gksrk gS rks blls izk;% fujFkZd iwokZuqeku gksrs gSaA

mnkgj.k osQ fy,] vuqowQyh izR;k'kk ifjdYiuk osQ vuqlkj vk£Fkd ,tsaV] Hkfo"; dh LiQhfr njksa dh izR;k'kkvksa
dk fuekZ.k] igys vuqHko gqbZ vkSlr LiQhfr njksa osQ Hkkfjr vkSlr ls djrs gSa vkSj ;fn okLrfod LiQhfr izR;kf'kr
LiQhfr ls fHkUu gksus okyh gksrh gS rks os le;≤ ij mu izR;k'kkvksa dks la'kksfèkr djrs gSaA ;g vk£Fkd ,tsaVksa
osQ vfoosdh (irrational) O;ogkj dks izdV djrk gSA nh?kZdkyhu fiQfyIl oØ dk ÚhMeSu dk fo'ys"k.k
vuqowQyh izR;k'kk ifjdYiuk ij vkèkkfjr gSA ÚhMeSu dh Roj.k (acceleration) ifjdYiuk esa fufgr ekU;rk fd
dher izR;k'kk,¡ eq[; :i ls igys dh LiQhfr osQ vuqHko ij vkèkkfjr gksrh gSaa] vokLrfod gSA tc vk£Fkd
,tsaVksa dh dher izR;k'kk,¡ bl ekU;rk ij vkèkkfjr gksrh gSa rks os vfoosdh gksrs gSaA ;fn os c<+rh dherksa dh
fLFkfr esa ,slk lksprs gSa rks vius dks xyr ik,¡xsA bldk dkj.k gS fd izR;k'kkvksa dk fuekZ.k osQoy igys osQ
iz{ksi.kksa (projections) ls gh ugha] cfYd Hkfo"; osQ izR;{k iwokZuqekuksa ls Hkh gksrk gSA yksxksa dh izR;k'kkvksa dk
vkèkkj fiNys dher ifjorZuksa osQ lkFk&lkFk dbZ ?kVdksa osQ lacaèk esa orZeku lwpuk,¡ Hkh gksrh gSaA bl izdkj]
foosd'khy yksx Hkfo"; dh LiQhfr dk vfèkd ;FkkFkZrk ls iwokZuqeku djus osQ fy, lHkh miyCèk lwpukvksa dk
iz;ksx djrs gSaA

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