Page 85 - DECO402_MACROECONOMIC_THEORY_PUNJABI

iekweI–9: sQweI Awmdn Aqy jIvn c`kr pirklpnw

AMSq cwlU Awmdn Aqy AMSq ipClI AviDAw dI Awmdn qy inrBr krdI hY (Permanent income depends È؇
partly on current income and partly on previous periods’ income)[ ieh ies qrW mwpI jw skdI hY :
Y = aY + (1 – a) Y ...(5)
pt t t – 1
ijQy Y = vrqmwn smy dI sQweI Awmdn, Y = vrqmwn smy dI cwlU Awmdn; Y ipCly smy dI Awmdn;
pt t t – 1
a = ipCly smy (t - 1) Aqy vqrmwn smy dy iv`c Awmdn iv`c bdlwv dw Anupwq[ ieh smIkrx dsdw hY ik
sQweI Awmdn vrqmwn smy dI Awmdn (Y ) Aqy ipCly smy dI Awmdn (Y ) Aqy donW dy iv`c Awmdn bdlwv
t t – 1
dy Anupwq (a) dw joV hY[ jykr vqrmwn Awmdn iekdm v`D jWdI hY qW sQweI Awmdn iv`c G`t virDI hovygI[
sQweI Awmdn dy v`Dx dy nwl Awmdn ƒ keI swlNw iqkr v`Dxw pvygw[ Pyr hI lok smJxgy ik aouh v`DI hY[
smIkrx (4) Aqy (5) dy smwXojn qoy AlpkwlIn Aqy dIrGkwlIn apBog Pln nUM ies pRkwr nwl ivAkq
kIqw jw skdw hY :
C = KY = KaY + K (1 – a) Y …(6)
t pt t t - 1
ijQy C = vrqmwn AviD dw apBog, Ka = QoVy smyN MPC; k = lMby smyN MPC; Aqy (1 – a) Y t – 1 QoVy
t
smyN apBog Pln dw rukwvt (intercept) hY[
PRIfmYn dy muqbwk k Aqy ka iek dujy qo iBn hY Aqy k > ka [ Pyr k lgBg 1 (iek) dy brwbr hNdw hY Aqy
ka ijro (0) dy[
smIkrx (6) dsdw hY ik apBog ipClI Awmdn Aqy vrqmwn Awmdn donW qy inrBr krdw hY[ apBog dy
leI ipClI Awmdn iesleI mh`qvpUrn hY ikaNik ieh lokW nUM Biv`K dI Awmdn dw pUrvAnumwn lgwaux ivc
shwiek huMdI hYY[

È؇√ cwlU jW mwipq Awmdn apBog Krc ƒ inrDwirq krdI hY[

iesdI mnqwvW (its Assumptions) – PRIfmYn ny Awmdn dy sDweI Aqy AsDweI ihisAw dy iv`c sMbDW dy bwry
iv`c hyT iliKAw mnqwvW pyS kIiqAw hn –
1. AsQweI Aqy sQweI Awmdn dy iv`c koeI ssMbD nhI hY[
2. sQweI Aqy AsQweI apBog dy iv`c koeI ssMbD nhI hY[
3. AsQweI apBog Aqy AsQweI Awmdn dy iv`c koeI ssMbD nhI hY[
4. kyvl sQweI Awmdn iv`c hox vwly bdlwv hI apBog ƒ ivvsiQq rup qy pRBwivq krdy hn[
ieh mnqwvW PRIfmYn dy isDWq dy iqrXk Cyd (cross section) pirxwmW ƒ dsdI hY ijnW dy muqbwk QoVy smy
dy apBog Pln ryKIey Aqy gYr-Awnupwiqk huMdw hY[ Bwv APC > MPC Aqy smkwlIn apBog Pln ryKIA
Aqy Awnupwiqk huMdw hY Bwv APC = MPC. icqr 9.1 PRIfmYn dI sQweI Awmdn pirklpnw dI ivAwiKAw
krdw hY ijQy C lMmy smy dy apBog Pln hn jyVy kI iek ivAkqI dI Awmdn Aqy apBog dy iv`c lMmy smy
L
dy Awnupwiqk sMbD ivAwn krdw hY ijQy APC = MPC. C gYr Awnupwiqk QoVy smy dy apBog Pln hn ijQy
s
mwipq vrqmwn Awmdn dy sQweI Aqy AsQweI dovy ihsy swml hn, C Aqy C [ dony vkr OY Awmdn p`Dr
L S
dy ibMdu E qy brwbr hn ijQy sQweI Awmdn Aqy mwipq Awmdn ieko ijhI hY Aqy ies qrW sDweI Aqy mwipq
apBog (YE) ieko ijhI hY[E ibMdU qy AsQweI kwrk nhI pwey jWdy[ jykr apBogqw dI Awmdn v`D kr E
ho jWdI hY qW auh AwpxI apBog dI Awmdn iv`c v`DI dy muqbwk v`Dygw[ iedy leI auh C vkr E qo E dI
S 2
Aor giq krygw ijQy QoVy smy iv`c auhdI mwipq Awmdn OY hY Aqy mwipq apBog Y E hY[ pr jykr OY
1 1 2 1
Awmdn p`Dr sQweI Awmdn p`Dr ho jwdW hY qW apBogqw iehdy muqbwk Awpxy apBog iv`c virDI krygw ijdy
nwl auhnW dw apBog Pln C iKsk kr auqy ƒ C cwilAw jwvygw Aqy lMmy smy dy apBog Pln C ƒ E
s s1 L 1
ibMdU qy k`tygw[ ies qrW, OY sQweI Awmdn p`Dr qy apBogqw Y E apBog krygw[
1
1
1
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