Page 142 - DMGT519_Conflict Management and Negotiation Skills

Conflict Management and Negotiation Skills

Notes 2. Disconfirmed expectations. People prepare themselves for an event that never
occurs – or even worse, an event whose opposite occurs. For example, you expect to do
well on an exam, and you don’t.
For example, when prophesy fails. In 1955, Marian Keech predicted that a great flood was
going to destroy the Western Hemisphere on Dec. 21. She said she got her information
from the planet Clarion. She attracted a band of followers, and received further messages
about how the faithful could save themselves. Midnight of the big day came and passed,
and nothing happened. At 4:45 a.m., they received a Christmas message informing them
that because of their commitment and faithfulness, the earth had been spared.

Q: How did the followers behave, both before and after the event?
Prior to the big day, they were very secretive, and shunned publicity. After the big day,
they called the media, sent out press releases, and recruited new followers. Why?

Many of these people had quit their jobs, and broken up with their spouses and friends,
based on a belief that had been disconfirmed. This produced dissonance. They couldn’t
deny their past beliefs – they couldn’t say the flood had occurred – they couldn’t deny they
had quit their jobs. They could have decided they were mistaken, but that would create
dissonance with other cognitions, such as their being intelligent people. Hence, they
convinced themselves they were right all along, and their faithfulness had saved the
world. Further, if they could convince others to adopt their views, this would affirm their
sense that their views were correct.
3. Insufficient justification for behavior. People do things which they lack justification for.

For example, in a classic Festinger experiment, subjects were given a peg board and told
to carefully turn each peg 1/4 turn. Then, after doing all the pegs, they were told to turn
them another 1/4 turn. Later they had to carefully remove each peg, and then put them all
back. After an hour, they were told they were done. The experimenter then said “We are
comparing the performance of subjects who are briefed in advance with those who are not
briefed in advance. You did not receive a briefing. The next subject is supposed to be
briefed, but my assistance who usually does this couldn’t come to work today.” Subjects
were then asked to tell the next student the task was fun and exciting, and were offered
either $1 or $20 for doing so. Those who only got paid a $1 were more likely to report they
thought the task was interesting, because they lacked a strong justification for their actions.
4. Post-decision dissonance – after every decision, you feel dissonance because you have
rejected some good things and accepted some bad. We tend to become more certain of
decisions afterwards.

For example, bettors approached after they had placed bets at the racetrack were more
sure of their choices than those approached before placing bets.
Note: This does not mean we never regret a decision. Disconfirmed expectations, new
information, or whatever may cause us feel we made a mistake. However, until these new
events/information or whatever comes along, we will tend to feel more confident about
our decision. Obviously, in the case of the racetrack example, people may have felt more
confident after they placed their bets, but after the race was run a lot of them probably
didn’t feel so confident anymore!
5. Not all inconsistencies result in cognitive dissonance: How is inconsistency possible?
(a) Cognitions may not be important to the individual - hence inconsistency does not
produce discomfort.

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