Page 238 - DECO402_MACROECONOMIC_THEORY_PUNJABI

smStI ArQSwsqr dy isDWq

È؇ √ÚÀ ÓπÒª’‰ (Self Assessment)
hyT id`qy gey kQ`nW iv`c shI Aqy glq dI pihcwn kro

(State whether the following statements are True or False):
7. smiriD AvsQw iv`c mMg, aqpwdn, rojgwr Aqy Awmdn au`cy p`Dr qy huMdy hn[
8. invyS, rojgwr, aqpwdn, Awmdn Aqy kImqW iv`c viriD dI sMceI pRkirAw Awp Apxw poSx krdI
hY[
9. jd iSKr iv`c jyVw QoVy smy dw huMdw hY, Qly dy Aor giq huMdI hY qW ssqI Suru ho jWdI hY[
10. jdo AwriQk kirAw iv`c ivAwpk hw`s huMdw hY qW ssqI, qyjI iv`c ivlIn ho jWdI hY[

24.6 ihks dw ivAwpwr-ckr isDWq (Hicks’s Theory of Trade Cycle)
poRPysr jy. Awr ihks ny ApxI pusqk A contribution to the Theory of the Trade Cycle iv`c guxk qvrk
prspr kirAw dy AwDwr qy Apxw ivAwpwr ckrW dw isDWq inrimq ikqw hY[ iehdy leI “qvrk dw isDWq
Aqy guxk dw isDWq auqwr-cFwau dy isDWq dy do pS hn[” sYmXulsn dy mofl nwl iBn, jyVy Al5 auqwr
cFwau dy AiDAn nwl lwgu huMdw hY, ihks dw mofl viriD Aqy giqmwn sMquln dI smwisAW nwl sMbD rKdw hY[
mofl dy q`q (Ingredients of the Model)

ihks dy ivAwpwr-c`kr mwfl dy q`qv ieh hYN ivr`iD dI ABISt dr, au5Bog Pln, in`jI invyS, 5®yirq invyS
Pln Aqy guxk-qvrk sMbMD[
ivr5I dI ABISt (Warranted rate of growth) dr auh dr hY, jyVI Apxy Awp ƒ bnwey rKygI[ ieh bcq
invyS sMquln dy Anurup hMudI hY[ jd vwsqivk invyS Aqy vwsqivk bcq iek hI smwn dr qy ho rhI hovy qW
kIhw jw skdw hY ArQ-ivvsQW ABISt dr nwl viriD kr rhI hY[ ihks dy muqwbk guxk-qvrk prspr
kirAW hI hY, jyVI ABISt viriD dr dy kol AwriQk auqwr-cFwau dw mwrg pRSsq krdI hY[

apBog Pln C = α Y dw rup lYdW hY[ AviD t iv`c apBog ƒ ipClI AviD (t – 1) dI Awmdn (Y) dw
t t-1
Pln minAw jwdW hY[ ies qrW Awmdn dy apBog pICy rh jWdy hn Aqy guxk dy smy qo bwd sMbD (lagged
relation) smiJAw jwdW hY[
Awp invyS, aqpwdn dy p`Dr iv`c bdlwvW qo Awjwd huMdW hY, iesleI ieh ArQ-ivvsQw iv`c viriD nwl
nhI sMbD huMdw[
dUjy pwsy, pRyirq invyS aqpwdn dy p`Dr iv`c bdlwv qy inrBr krdw hY, iesleI ieh ArQ-ivvsQw dI viriD
dr dw Pln huMdw hY[ihks dy mofl iv`c qvrk, pyRirq invyS qy AwDwirq hY, jyVw guxk dy nwl imlky auprI
moV (upturn) ilAwdw hY[ ihks ny qvrk ƒ ievy pirBwiSq kIqw hY ik ieh pRirq invyS dw Awmdn iv`c
viriD dy Anupwq hY[
guxk Aqy qvrk dy siQr mu`ilAw dy idqy hoey hox qy ‘lIvr pRBwv’ (leverage effect) hI AwriQk aqwr-cFwau
dy leI aqrdweI hMudw hY[

mofl dI mwinAqwvW (Assumptions of the Model)
ivAwpwr-ckr dw ihksIX isDWq ien mwinAqwvW dy AwDwirq hY –

1. ihks mn lYdw hY ik ArQ-ivvsQw pRgiqSIl hY ijdy iv`c Awp invyS siQr dr qy ies qrW v`Ddw hY
qwik ArQ-ivvsQw giqmwn sMquln iv`c rvy[
2. bcq Aqy invyS guxk (co-efficients) kwl prXMq (over-time) ieh ijhy FMg nwl bdldy hn ik sMquln
p`Q qo au`qy dI Aor ivsQwpn (displacement) sMquln qo dUr smy qo bwd giq (lagged movement)
lY lYdw hY[

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