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iekweI-24: ivAwpwr ckr : pirBwSw Aqy iksm

kImq imly asy qy vpwrI Awpxw stwk vycky bYNkW dw krzw cukWaNdy hn[ pirxwmsrUp bYNkW dI irzrvW ivc È؇
mudrw Awaux lgdI hY Aqy bYNkW dy koS v~Ddy hn[ jykr bYNk- dr bhuq G`t huMdI hY, iPr vI swK giqroD (credit
deadlock) bixAw riMhMdw hY jo AwriQk skirXqw ivc inrwSwvwd dy kwrx vpwirAW nUM bYNkW qo auDwr lYx qoN
roky rKdw hY[kyNdrI bYNk ies giqroD nUM ssqI mudrw nIiq Apnwky Kqm kr skdw hY, jo Awbr ArQivvsQw
ivc punrUqQwn ilAweygw[

AlocnwvW (Criticisms)
PRIfmYn (Friedman) vrgy mudrw-isDWiqAW ny hwtRy dy isDWq dw smrQn kIqw hY[ pr ijAwdwqr ArQSwsqirAW
ny asdI ies g`l qy Alocnw kIqI hY ik ausny ckrIXy aqwr- cVwv dI ivAwiKAw krx ivc modirk swDnW qy
ijAwdw jor id`qw hY Aqy gYr-modirk swDnW dI apySw kIqI hY[ ijnW glW qy hwtRy dy isDWq dI AlocnW kIqI
geI hY, aunW ivcoN kuJ dI crcw Q`ly kIqI jw rhI hY[
1. swK pRswr jW sMkucn qyjI Aqy mMdI nhIN ilAw skdw (Expansion or Contraction of Credit cannot
bring Boom or Depression) - ies g`l qoN koeI vI ienkwr nhIN kr skdw ik swK dw pRswr hox
nwl vpwr ikirAw dw ivsqwr huMdw hY[ pr hwtRy mMndw hY ik swK pRswr nwl qyjI AWdI hY[ ieh TIk
nhI hY ikauNik qyjI dw kwrx swK pRswr nhIN hY[ ijvyNik pIgU ny lkS kIqw hY “ bYNk mudrw pUriq ivc
hox vwly bdlwv vpwr ckr dw AMg hn , kwrx nhIN[ ” mMdI dI AMiqm siQqI ivc krz sugmqw nwl
aplbD huMdw hY, pr iPr auh punrUqQwn ilAwx ivc AsmrQ rihMdw hY[iesy qrW, swK sMkucn mMdI
nhIN ilAw skdw hY[ bhuq hoieAw,qW auh mMdI dy leI siQqIAW mwqr pYdw kr skdw hY[ies qrW, swK
dw pRswr jW sMkucn ArQivvsQw ivc nW qW qyjI Aqy nW hI mMdI ilAw skdw hY[
2. smirDI AnMqkwl dy leI clweI nhIN jw skdI Aqy mMdI rokI nhIN jw skdI (Prosperity cannot be
continued and Depression cannot be delayed indefinitely) - hYbrlr ny hwtRy dy ies qrk dI
Alocnw kIqI hY ik “vpwirk qyjI dy BMg dy leI sdw modirk kwrx hI auq`rdweI rihMdw hY Aqy jykr
mudrw pUriq AnMq hovy, qW AinSicq kwl dy leI smirDI cldI rh skdI hY Aqy mMdI nUM roikAw jw
skdw hY[" pr q`Q ieh hY ik jykr dyS ivc mudrw dI pUriq AMnq vI hovy, qW vI nW qW smirDI nUM AMNnq
kwl dy leI clwieAw jw skdw hY Aqy nw hI mMdI nUM AinSicqkwl q`k sQigq kIqw jw skdw hY[
3. ivAwpwrI kyvl bYNk swK qy inrBr nhIN (Traders not dependent only on Bank Credit) - hwtRy ny
Awpxy ivSlySx ivc Qok-ivkRyqw nUM jo kwirAw Bwg idqw hY, asdI Alocnw pRo. hYmbrg ny kIqI hY[hwtRy
dy isDWq ivc pRmu`K ivAkqI ivAwpwrI jW Qok ivkRyqw hY jo bYNkW qON auDwr lYNdw hY Aqy aqQwn jW pqn
ilAwxw SUru krdw hY[ vwsqv ivc ivAwpwrI kyvl bYNk swK qy hI inrBr nhIN krdy blik Awpxy sMicq
koSW Aqy injI srOqW qo auDwr-gRihx rwhI Awpxy ivAwpwrI dy leI ivq dw pRbMD krdy hn[

‡≈√’ ivAwpwr-ckr sMbiD isDWq dy bwry iv`c Apxy ivcwr pyS kro[

24.5 sYmXulsn dw ivAwpwr-ckr mw`fl (Samuelson’s Trade Cycle Model)

pRo. sYmXulsn ny iek smy ssypScqw (one period lag) MPC (α) Aqy qvrk (β) dy iBn mu`l mnky, pMj iBn
qrW dy ivAwpwr ckrW nwl sMbiDq iek guxk qvrk mw`fl inrimq kIqw hY[ sYmXulsn mofl ieh hY –

Y = G + C + I …(i)
t t t t
ijQy Y rwSqrI Awmdn (Y) hY, t msy qy jyVI ik srkwrI Krc G aupBog Krc C Aqy pRyirq invyS I dw kul
t t t t
joV hY[

LOVELY PROFESSIONAL UNIVERSITY 229