Page 230 - DECO402_MACROECONOMIC_THEORY_PUNJABI

smStI ArQSwsqr dy isDWq

È؇ kImqW Aqy aucI byrojgwr pRiqSqqw qoN Xukq bury vpwr dI AviDAW dy nwl Adl-bdl krdI hY[" po· esty dy
Anuswr , "ck@IA Eqwr-cFwv dI iviSStqw ivsqwr Aqy sMkucn dI qrNgW dw Adl-bdl rY[ ahnW dI koeI
inXq lXy nhIN huMdI, pr auh ies Bwv ivc ckrIey huMdy hn ik sMkucn Aqy ivsqwr dI AvsQWvW Aksr Aqy
pRAwpq rUp nwl imldy-juldy FMg qy bwr-bwr AwauNidAW hn[” vpwr-ckrW dI siQqI ivc lkS krx dI
mhq`vpUrx g`l ieh hY ik koeI vI ckr iekrup, vwrNvwr Aqy ivsqwr nwl Xukq purxrup nwl inXimq nhI
huMdw Bwv ieho ijhw nhI huMdW kI aqpwdn dy iek iSKr p`Dr qy dUjy q`k pMjx leI swƒ ieko ijhw hI smy lgy
Aqy aqpwdn Aqy rojgwr dw p`Dr au`qy Aqy Qly dy moV ibMduAW dy iv`c s`dw iek hI Anupwq iv`c ivcrx kry[
pr ies qrW dy ckr kdy Gitq nhI huMdy[ ies qrW ivAwpwr ckr kul rojgwr Awmdn, aqpwdn Aqy kImq
p`DrW dy AwvrqI aqwr-cwfv huMdy hn[

24.1 ckrW dy iksm (Types of Cycles)

ivApwr ckrW ƒ Awm qor qy hyT ies qrW vMifAw jwdW hY[
(1) Cotw ikc`n ckr (The Short Kitchin Cycle) – iesƒ lGu ckr vI ikhw jwdW hY, jyVw lgBg 40
mihinAW dy msy dw huMdw hY[ ieh biritS ArQSwSqrI josyP ikc`n (Joseph Kitchin) dy nW qy mShUr hY ijny
1923 dy v`Dy Aqy Coty ckrW dy iv`c Prk pyS kIqw[ auh Apxy SoD dy AwDwr qy ies nwiqjy qy puMijAw ik v`Dw
ckr 40 mihinAw iv`c do jW iqn ckrW dw huMdw hY[
(2) lMmw juglr ckr (The Long Juglar Cycle) – ies ckr ƒ v`Dw ckr vI ikhw jwdW hY[ iesƒ ies
qrW pirBwiSq kIqw jwdW hY[ “ieh AnukRimk (successive) sMktW dy iv`c ivAwpwr kirAw dw auqwr cFwau
huMdw hY[” 1862 iv`c PRWsIsI ArQSwSqrI klImyNt juglr (Clement Juglar) ny ieh disAw sI ik smiriD
sNkt Aqy pirsmwpn (Liquidation) dI AviDAW sdw iek hI kRm iv`c iek dUjy qo bwd AwaudI hY[ ienW s`b
qo bwd ArQSwSqrI ies nwiqjy qy pMujy hn ik juglr ckr dw smy Aosqn swFy no swl dw huMdW hY[
(3) bhuq lMmw kodrwqIP ckr (The Very Long Kondratieff Cycle) – 1925 iv`c rusI ArQSwSqrI
kodrwqIP ies nwiqjy qy pwhucy ik ckrW dI bhuq lwimAW qrMgW huMidAW hn ijsdw smy 50 swl qo v`D huMdw hY
Aqy jyVw Cy juglr ckrW dI bxI huMdI hY[ bhuq hI lMmy ckr ƒ kodrwqIP qrMgy ikhw jwny lwigAw hY[
(4) Bvn sMbDI ckr (Building Cycle) – ies qrW dy ckr auh hn jyVy BvnW dy inrmwx nwl sMbD rKdy hn
Aqy ijnW dw smy bhuq ijAwdw inXwmq huMdw hY[ ieh smy vfy ckrW dy smy qo do guxw Aqy Aosqn 18 swl huMdw
hY[ ies qrW dw ckr vwrn (Warren) Aqy ipXrsn (Pearson) nW dy do AmrIkI ArQSwSqrI dy nW nwl
sMbD hY, jyVw World Price and the Building Industry (1937) nW dI pusqk iv`c pyS nwiqjy qy puMjy sn[
(5) kujnyts ckr (Kuznets Cycle) – mShur AmrIkI ArQSwSqrI pRo. swiemn kujnyts ny 16-22 swl dy lMmy
auqwr–cFwau (secular swing) nW dy iek qrW dy ckrW dI pRsDwpxw kIqI ijsƒ ies FMg nwl pyS kIqw igAw
hY ik auh 7-11 swl dy ckr ƒ ijAwdwqr m`hqvhIn bxw iddW hY[ iesƒ kujnyts ckr ikhw jwx lwigAw[

È؇√ ivAwpwr-ckr puMjIvwdI ArQ-ivvsQw dw AMg hY[ ieh ckirAw qyijAw Aqy mMidAw
dy ivSW nwl sMbiDq hY[

√ÚÀ ÓπÒª’‰ (Self Assessment)
irkq QwvW ƒ Bro (Fill in the blanks):
1. ivAwpwr-ckr cMgy Aqy bury ivAwpwr dI smiriD Aqy mMdI dI AviDAW dw……………… hY[
2. ivAwpwr-cl kul rojgwr Awmdn, aqpwdn Aqy kImq p`DrW dI AwvqI……………… huMdI hY[

224 LOVELY PROFESSIONAL UNIVERSITY