Page 232 - DECO402_MACROECONOMIC_THEORY_PUNJABI

smStI ArQSwsqr dy isDWq

È؇ smiriD (Prosperity)
smiriD AvsQw iv`c mMg, aqpwdn, rojgwr Aqy Awmdn au`cy p`Dr qy huMdy hn[ auh kImqW v`Ddy hn pr
mjdUrI, vyqn, ibAwj dry, ikrwieAw Aqy dr, kImqW iv`c viriD dy Anupwq iv`c nhI v`Ddy hY[ kImqW Aqy
lwgqW dy AMdr qo lwB dI mwqrw v`D jWdI hY[ lwB dI viriD Aqy ausdy jwrI rihx dI sMBwvnw Awm rup nwl
stok-bwzwr mulW ivc qyjI nwl virDI krdI hY[“ suDrdI pRiqAwSwvW dy pRBwvW ivc swrIAW pRiqBuiqAW, ijnW
ivc bONf vI Swiml hn, vD`dy hn[ iviSSt bdlwv stokW ivc huMdw hY[ ApykSwkrq v`D lwB dI pRiqXWSWvW
invyS nUM hor vD`widAW hn[ adwr bYNk-swK invyS nUM shwieqw idMdI hY[ ies qrW dy invyS ijAwdwqr bYNk
siQr pUMjI, ‘plWt’, sMBwr Aqy mSinrI ivc huMdy hn[ auh apBokqw vsquAW dy leI mMg vD`w ky Aqy kImq
pD`r nUM hor v`Dwky AwriQk ikirAw ivc pRXwpq ivsqwr krdy hn[ ies nwl prcUn Aqy Qok ivkryqwvW Aqy
inrmwxkrqwvW nUM pRoqswhn imldw hY ik auh Awpxy BMfwrW ivc virDI krx [ies qrW nwl ivsqwr pRikirAw
audoN q`k sMcXI Aqy Awqm-smrQ bxI rhygI jdoN q`k ArQivvsQw aqpwdn dy aus aucy p~Dr qy nhI phuMcdI
ijs nUM iSK`r (peak) Aqy qyjI (boom) kihMdy hn[
smirDI Aqy iSKr ArQivvsQw nUM Aiq pUrx rojgwr pD`r qy phuMcw skdw hY Aqy kImqW ivc sPIiqkwrI
virDI ilAw skdw hY[ ieh smirDI AvsQw dy AMq Aqy susqI dy SUruAwq dw lkSx hY[susqI dy bIj qyjI dy
AMdr AwriQk FWcy ivc qnwvW dy rUp ivc mojUd rihMdy hn, jo ivsqwrkwrI pMQ qy inAMqrx dw kMm krdy hn[
auh ieh hn- (i) imhnq Aqy k`cy mwl ieqAwdI dI durblqw ijsnwl kImqW dI swpyKqw ivc lwgqW v`DdIAW
hn; (ii) pUMjI dI durlBqw dy kwrx ibAwz drW ivc virDI; Aqy (iii) jdoN Awmdn vDdI hY, qW vDdI kImqW
Aqy apBog dI siQr pRvriq dy kwrx apBog dw n v`D skxw[ pihlw kwrk lwB-sImWvW nMU G`twauNdw hY[
dujw kwrk invySW nMU mihMgw bxwaNdw hY Aqy pihly dy nwl imlky vpwr-pRiqAwSwvW nUM G`twdW hY[ qIjy kwrk
dw pirxwm ieh huMdw hY ik BMfwrW dw AMbwr l`g jWdw hY, jo pRkt krdw hY ik ivkryX Aqy apBog aqpwdn
qoN ipCy rih jWdw hY[ieh SkiqAW sMcXI Aqy Awqm-smrQk bx jWdIAW hn[ aD`mI,vpwrI Aqy ivAvsweI
bhuq sqrk ho jWdy hn Aqy AiqAwSwvwd dI QW inrwSWvwd lY lYNdw hY[ieh auprI moV ibMdu dI SUruAwq hY[

ssqI (Recession)
jdoN ‘isKr’ qoN, jo QoVI AviD dw huuMdw hY, Q`ly dI v`l giq huMdI hY qW susqI SUru ho jWdI hY[ “ieh moV dI aus
AviD nUM lkS krdI hY ijs ivc sMkucn ilAwaux vwlI SkiqAW AMq iv`c ivsqwr dI SkqIAW qy ij`q pRwpq
kr lYNdIAW hn[ iesdy bwhrly icMn ieh hn- stok bjwr ivc pirsmwpn (liquidation), bYNikNg pRxwlI ivc
qnwv Aqy krzW dw kuJ pirsmwpn, Aqy kImqW ivc pqn dI SUruAwq[” pirxwmq: lwB-sImWvW hor G~t
jWdIAW hn ikauik lwgqW kImqW qoN A`gy v`Dx lgdIAW hn[ kuJ PrmW bMd ho jWdIAW hn[ hor PrmW aqpwdn
G`tw idMdIAW hn Aqy sMicq stokW nUM vycx dw pRXqn krdIAW hn[ invyS, rojgwr Awmdn Aqy mMg if`g jWdI
hY[ ieh pRikirAw sMcXI bx jWdI hY[

ssqI hlkI jW qyj ho skdI hY[ qyj ssqI nwl Awksimk sPotwqmk siQqI Aw skdI hY, jo bYNk pRxwlI
Aqy stok AykscyNj qo pYdw huMdI hY Aqy AwqMk (panic) Aqy sMkt (crisis) Cw jWdw hY[ “ jdoN sMkt, Aqy v`D
iviSSt rUp nwl AwqMk, Cw hI jWdw hY, qW ieh ivSvws dy AMq Aqy qrlqw dy leI Awksimk mMgW nwl sMb`D
pRqIq huMdw hY[ ieh sMkt Awpxy Awp ivc iksI koqUkpUrx Aqy Awksimk AsPlqw dy kwrx vI Aw skdw hY[
koeI Prm Aqy bYNk jW ingm GoSxw kr idMdw hY ik auh Awpxw krzw cukwaux ivc AsmrQ hY[ ieh GoSxw hor
bYNkW Aqy PrmW nUM AYsy smyN ivc kmjor bxwauNdI hY, jdoN AwriQk FWcy ivc DMn dI kMmI dy ASuB lkSx pRkt
hox lgdy hn; Aqy iPr, ies nwl AwqMk dI AyYsI lihr Cw jWdI hY ik iviqX sMsQwvW qoN pYsw inklvwaux dI
B`j doV prwkwSTqw qy phuMc jWdI hY ……[ swl 1873, 1893, 1907 ivc sMXukq rwStr AmrIkw nMU iesI
qrW dw AnuBv pRwpq hoieAw sI[”em. fblXu. lI dy SbdW ivc, “ jdoN iek vwr ssqI SUru ho jWdI hY qW
auh Awpxy Awp jMgl dI A`g vWgU BVkx lgdI hY Aqy jdoN iek vwr cl pYNdI hY qW Awpy hI Awpxw sYnW dl
iqAwr kr lYNdI hY Aqy AwpxI ivDvMskwrI SkqI nUM AWqirk pRoqswhn idMdI hY”[

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