Page 237 - DECO402_MACROECONOMIC_THEORY_PUNJABI

iekweI-24: ivAwpwr ckr : pirBwSw Aqy iksm

AviD dy mukwbly XuDoqr AviD iv`c ckr ijAwdwqr pirm`idq gy hY[” ieh pirxwm hn “ ieho ijhy GtkW È؇
dy – ijnW ƒ AivvsiQq Jtky (erratic shocks) kIhw jw skdw hY – jyVy ieho ijhy bihjwrq sWDnW nwl pYdw
huMdy hn, jyVy XuD, PlnW iv`c bdlwv, AivSkwr, Awid ijnWdy “ prXwpq siQrqw dy nwl Awx dI kwmnW
kIqIo jw skdI hY[” pr iehnW dy pirxwm ƒ mwpxw sMBv nhI[
ivsPotwqmk ckrW dI siQqI n. 4 AqIq (past) iv`c nhI imldI[ ien ckrW dy ABwv dw kwrx aun bihjwrq
AwriQk swDnW dw pirxwm hY, jyVw auqwr cFwau ƒ sIimq krdw hY[ pr ihks ny m`ulAW dI minAqw lyky ivAwpwr
ckr dw mofl inrimq kIqw hY, jyVw iSKrW Aqy qlW rwhI inXMqirq ivAwpwr ckrW dw pRiqpwdn krdw hY[

smISwqmk mu`lWkn (Critical Appraisal)

guxk Aqy qvrk dI prspr kirAw dw sb qo v`Dw hux
ieh hY ik ieh Ak`ly guxk jW qvrk dI qulnw iv`c
rwSqrI Awmdn ƒ bhuq qyjI nwl v`DdI hY[ ieh n
kyvl ivAwpwirk ckrW dI ivAwiKAw dy leI blik
siQrIkrx nIqI (stabilization policy) dy mwrgdrSn
dy rup iv`c vI iek apXogI Aojwr hY[ ijvy jW po.
kuirhwrw dy lkS kIqw hY,” sImWq apBog pRviriq (iek
qo G`t hox) dI Dwrxw qy AwDwirq guxk ivSlySx nwl
imlky hI qvrk inXm ckr ivSlySx dy apXogI Aojwr
dy rup iv`c Aqy ivAwpwr ckr nIqI dy lwBwdwiek mwrg
drSn dy rup iv`c kMm krdw hY[” guxk Aqy qvrk
iekTy imlky ckrIAw aqwr-cFwau pYdw krdy hn[
qvrk dw mu`l (β) ijnW hI v`D hovygw, ivsPotwqmk
ckr dI sMBwvnw vI aunI hI v`D hovygI[ guxk dw mu`l icqr 24.2
(α) ijnW hI v`D hovygw, ckrhIn p`Q dI sMBwvnw aunI hI v`D hovygI[ AsI po.iesty (Prof. Estey) dy nwl
shmq huMdy hoey ies nqIjy qy Aw ky kh skdy hW – “guxk Aqy qvrk dw sMXog ckrIX auqwr-cFwau pYdw krx
dI Smqw rKdw pRqIq hMudw hY[ Aklw guxk iksy vI idqy hoey pRoqswhn iv`c koeI ckr nhI pYdw krdw blik
Awmdn dy siQr p`Dr q`k, kyvl holI viriD pRdwn krdw hY, ijsy apBog dI pRviriq inrDwirq krdI hY pr
jykr qvrk dy inXm iv`c bdlwv kr idqw jwvy, qW pirxwm ieh hovygw ik auqwr-cFwau dw kRm Suru ho jwdW
hY, ijsƒ guxk p`Dr ikhw jwdW hY[ qvrk pihlw kul Awmdn ƒ ies 5Dr qo auqy lY jwdW hY, pr ijvy Awmdn
iv`c viriD dI dr G`tdI hY, qvrk Qlxw mox iv`c bdlwv kr lYdw hY jyVw kul Awmdn dw guxk p`Dr qo Qly
lY jwdW hY, qd Pyr au`qy Aqy iesy qrW kRm cldw rihNdw hY[

sImwvW (Limitations)
guxk-qvrk prspr kirAw dy ies pRqXS apXogW dy bwvjUd pyS ivSlySx dI ApxI sImwvW hY[
1. sYmXulsn ny ijnW iBn ckrW dI ivAwiKAw kIqI hY, auhnW dI AviD dI lMbweI dy sMbD iv`c auh cup
hn[
2. pyS ivSlySx ieh mMn lYdW hY ik apBog dI sImWq pRvirqI (α) Aqy qvrk (β) siQr hY, pr hik`kq
iv`c ieh Awmdn dy p`Dr dy nwl-nwl bdldy rihdy hn[ iesleI ieh Coty auqwr – cFwvW dy AiDAn
qy hI lwgu ho skdw hY[
3. pyS mofl iv` ijnW ckrW dI ivAwiKAw kIqI geI hY, auh pRviqhIn ArQ-ivvsQw iv`c siQr p`Dr dy
nwl hI Gumdy rihdy hn[ ieh vwsqivk nhI hY, ikauik ArQ-ivvsQw pRviqhIn (trendless) nhI huMdI
blik viriD dI pkirAw iv`c rihdI hY[ iesy dw pirxwm hY ik ihks ny viriDSIl ArQ-ivvsQw dy
ivAwpwr ckr dy Apxy isDWq dw inrmwx kIqw[

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