Page 231 - DECO402_MACROECONOMIC_THEORY_PUNJABI

iekweI-24: ivAwpwr ckr : pirBwSw Aqy iksm

24.2 ivAwpwr-ckr dI AvsQwvW (Phases of a Trade Cycle) È؇

iek ivisSt ckr Awm qor qy cwr AvsQwvW iv`c vifAw jwdW hY –
1. ivsqwr Aqy smiriD Aqy aqkrS (upswing)
2. susqI (recession) Aqy auprI mof ibMdu
3. sMkucn jW mMdI jW ApkrS (downswing) Aqy
4. dubwrw anXn (revival) Aqy dubwrw auqQwn (Recovery) Aqy Q`lxw mof ibMdu[

iBn ckrW dI siQiq iv`c ieh AvsQwvW
AwvrqI (recurring) Aqy iekrup huMdI hY pr
iksy vI AvsQw iv`c inSicq kwlkrm Aqy
kwl AMqrwl (time interval) nhI huMdw ijvy dw
pIgu ny lkS kIqw sI, ckr Bvy hI juxvw n hovy
pr auh iek hI pirvwr dy huMdy hn[ pirvwrW
dI BWiq auhnW dI Awm iviSStqwvW huMidAW
hn ijnW dw vrxn kIqw jw skdw hY[ KurlI
(trough) Aqy Qly dy ibMdu qo Suru hoky ckr dubwrw
aqQwn jW smiriD dI AvsQw iv`co dI gujrdw hY,
iSKr qy cFdw hY, susqI Aqy mMdI dI AvsQw
dy mwiDAm qo gujrdw hY Aqy KurlI q`k phucdw
hY[ iesƒ icqr 24.1 iv`c ivKwieAw igAw hY[
icqr 24.1
AsI AMgy ivAwpwr ckr dI ien iviSStwvW
dw vrxn krdy hn[

dubwrruqQwn (Recovery)
AsI pwihlw ies siQiq ƒ lYNdy hW, jdo kuJ idn mMdI ryh cukI hovy Aqy punrAQwn AvsQw Aqy inclw moV ibMdu
SUru huMdw hY[ ‘AwrMBkwrI SkqIAW’ (originating forces) Aqy ‘pRwrNBk’ (starters) bwihAjwq (exogenous)
Aqy AMqrjwq (endogenous) SkiqAW huMidAW hn[ mMn lvo ik ArD-itkwau vsquAW iGs jWdIAW hn Aqy
pirxwm srUp ieh jrUrI ho jWdw hY ik ArQivvsQw ivc auhnW nUM sQwnwpn kIqw jwvy[ies nwl mMg v`DdI
hY ies v`DI hoeI mMg nUM pUrw krx dy leI invyS Aqy rojgwr vD`dy hn[ aDXog dw punraQwn SUru ho jWdw hY[
sMbMD pUMjI vsqu aDXogW ivc vI punruQwn SUru huMdw hY[ jdoN iek vwr SuUru ho jWdw hY,qW punraNnXn dI pRikirAw
sMcXI bx jWdI hY[ pirxwmsrup ArQivvsQw ivc rojgwr, Awmdn Aqy aqpwdn dy pDr holI-holI vD`dy
hn[punrUQwn-AvsQw dI SruAwqI AvsQwvW vc ArQivvQw ivc BrpUr Aiqirkq Aqy ApRXukq SkqI huMdI hY
ijsnUM kul lwgq ivc Anupwiqk virDI hoey ibnW hI aqpwdn vD`dw hY[“pr ijvyN-ijvyN smW lMGdw hY;, iqvyN-
iqvyN aqpwdn G`t locdwr huMdw jWdw hY[ v`DidAW lwgqW dy nwl muSklW Awaux lgidAW hn,ivqrx ivc v~D
muSikl huMdI hY Aqy ho skdw hY ik ‘plWtW’ dw v`D ivsqwr krnw pvy- ienW siQiqAW ivc kImqW v`DidAW
hn[”lwB ivc virDI hMudI hY[ vpwr- pRiqXwSWvw ivc suDwr huMdw hY[ ieStqm siQqI rihMdI hY[ invyS nuM
pRoqswhn imldw hY, jo bYNk krz dy leI mMg nUM vD`wdW hY[ ies nwl swK ivsqwr huMdw hY[ ies qrW invyS,
rojgwr, Awmdn Aqy kImqW iv`c viriD dI sMcweI pkirAw Awp Apxw poSx krdI hY Aqy Awqm smrQk bx
jWdI hY[ AMq iv`c dubwrwruQwn smiriD AvsQw iv`c kdm rKdw hY[

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