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vFkZ'kkL=k esa lkaf[;dh; fof/;k¡
uksV dky Js.kh osQ fo'ys"k.k dk izeq[k mís'; Hkkoh ?kVukvksa dh xfrfof/;ksa dk lgh <ax ls vuqeku yxkuk gS rkfd
vk£Fkd rF;ksa esa gksus okys mPpkopuksa dks le>k tk losQ] mudk fuoZpu fd;k tk losQ vkSj mudk ewY;kadu
fd;k tk losQA
22-1 dky Js.kh dk vFkZ ,oa ifjHkk"kk (Meaning and Definition of Time-Series)
la[;kRed rF; ftudk ladyu le;kUrj ls fd;k tkrk gS] dky&Js.kh ;k dky&ekyk dk :i ys ysrs gSaA
le; dh bdkbZ o"kZ] ekl] fnu vFkok ?k.Vs] vkfn ek=k ,d fof/ gS ftlls leLr rF;ksa dks ,d lkekU; o
fLFkj lUnHkZ&fcUnq ls lEcfU/r djuk lEHko gks tkrk gSA
ftl lead Js.kh osQ pj&ewY;ksa esa le; rRo }kjk ifjorZu gks mlh Js.kh dks dky&Js.kh dgrs gSaA osQus o dh¯ix
(Kenney and Keeping) osQ 'kCnksa esa] ¶le; ij vk/kfjr lead lewg dky&Js.kh dgykrs gSaA¸
ouZj tsM fg'kZ (Werner, Z. Hirsh) osQ 'kCnksa esa] ¶le; osQ Øfed fcUnqvksa osQ rRlaoknh mlh pj osQ ewY;ksa
dk O;ofLFkr vuqØe gh dky&Js.kh dgykrk gSA¸ ;k&yqu&pkÅ (Ya-Lun-Chou) osQ vuqlkj] ¶,d
dky&Js.kh osQ fdlh vkfFkZd pj vFkok fefJr pjksa] ftudk lEcU/ fofHkUu le;kof/;ksa ls gksrk gS] osQ
voyksduksa osQ ladyu osQ :i esa ifjHkkf"kr fd;k tk ldrk gSA¸
22-2 dky&Js.kh osQ la?kVd (Components of Time-Series)
dky&Js.kh osQ ,sfrgkfld lead fdlh le;kof/ esa gq, lHkh ifjorZuksa ls izHkkfor gksrs gSaA leadksa ij iM+us okys
izHkkoksa dks mudh izÑfr osQ vk/kj ij fuEu oxZ esa oxhZÑr fd;k tk ldrk gSA ;s oxhZÑr izHkko gh dky&Js.kh
osQ pkj egÙoiw.kZ vo;o ;k la?kVd dgykrs gSaA
1. miufr ;k nh?kZdkyhu izo`fÙk (Trend or Secular Trend or Long-term Trend),
2. vkrZo ;k lkef;d ;k Írqfu"B ifjorZu (Seasonal Variations),
3. pØh; ifjorZu (Cyclical Variations),
4. nSo ;k vfu;fer ifjorZu (Random or Irregular Variations)A
vkrZo ;k pØh; ifjorZuksa dks feykdj vYidkyhu mPpkopu (short-time fluctuations) Hkh dgk tkrk gSA
miufr (Trends)
dky&Js.kh esa nh?kZdky esa gq, fu;fer ifjorZu vFkkZr~ dky&Js.kh dh le;kof/ esa c<+us ;k ?kVus dh vk/kjHkwr
izo`fÙk dks miufr dgk tkrk gSA ,e- esyud (M. Melnyk) osQ vuqlkj] ¶miufr ls vk'k; dky&Js.kh dh
lkekU; fn'kk ls rFkk Lo:i ls gSA¸
miufr ;k rks ,d lh/h js[kk gks ldrh gS vFkok Hkqtk{k ls vory (concave) ;k mÙky (convex) gksxhA ;fn
dksbZ Js.kh c<+rh gS rks mls c<+rh gqbZ miufr (upward trend) dgrs gSaA ;fn Js.kh ?kVrh gS rks mls ?kVrh gqbZ
miufr (downward trend) dgrs gSaA
;fn dksbZ Js.kh u ?kVrh gqbZ vkSj u c<+rh gqbZ izrhr gksrh gS rks og Js.kh miufr foghu (non-trend) gSA
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