Page 327 - DECO504_STATISTICAL_METHODS_IN_ECONOMICS_HINDI

bdkbZ—22% dky&Js.kh dk fo'ys"k.k% ifjp; ,oa dky&Js.kh osQ la?kVd

4. nh?kZdkyhu izo`fÙk ;k miufr Kkr djus osQ fy, iz;ksx dh tkrh gSμ uksV
(d) v/Z&eè;d jhfr ([k) py ekè; jhfr
(x) U;wure oxZ jhfr (?k) mi;qZDr lHkhA
5. O;kikj pØ esa gksus okys mrkj&p<+koksa dk vuqeku yxk;k tk ldrk gSμ

(d) pØh; mPpkopuksa ls ([k) ½rqfu"B ifjorZu ls
(x) vfu;fer ifjorZu ls (?k) buesa ls dksbZ ughaA

22-6 lkjka'k (Summary)

• ftl lead Js.kh osQ pj&ewY;ksa esa le; rRo }kjk ifjorZu gks mlh Js.kh dks dky&Js.kh dgrs gSaA
• dky&Js.kh osQ ,sfrgkfld lead fdlh le;kof/ esa gq, lHkh ifjorZuksa ls izHkkfor gksrs gSaA leadksa ij

iM+us okys izHkkoksa dks mudh izÑfr osQ vk/kj ij fuEu oxZ esa oxhZÑr fd;k tk ldrk gSA ;s oxhZÑr
izHkko gh dky&Js.kh osQ pkj egÙoiw.kZ vo;o ;k la?kVd dgykrs gSaA
1. miufr ;k nh?kZdkyhu izo`fÙk (Trend or Secular Trend or Long-term Trend),
2. vkrZo ;k lkef;d ;k Írqfu"B ifjorZu (Seasonal Variations),

3. pØh; ifjorZu (Cyclical Variations),
4. nSo ;k vfu;fer ifjorZu (Random or Irregular Variations)A
• dky&Js.kh esa nh?kZdky esa gq, fu;fer ifjorZu vFkkZr~ dky&Js.kh dh le;kof/ esa c<+us ;k ?kVus dh
vk/kjHkwr izo`fÙk dks miufr dgk tkrk gSA
• dky&Js.kh osQ pkj izeq[k la?kVdksa dks i`Fko~Q&i`Fko~Q dj mudk vè;;u djuk gh dky&Js.kh dk
fo'ys"k.k dgykrk gSA
• dky&Js.kh dk vè;;u O;olk;h] m|ksxifr] vFkZ'kkL=kh] ljdkj] Ñ"kd] miHkksDrk] vkfn lHkh oxks± osQ
fy, egRoiw.kZ gSA dky&Js.kh thou osQ fofHkUu {ks=kksa esa gksus okys ifjorZuksa dk vè;;u] Hkfo"; osQ ckjs
esa vuqeku] fiNys vuqHko ls ykHk] O;kikj&pØ dk vuqeku rFkk nwljh dky&Jsf.k;ksa osQ lkFk rqyuk
djus esa cgqr gh mi;ksxh gSA bu lcosQ fy, dky&Js.kh esa leadksa dk fo'ys"k.k fd;k tkrk gSA

22-7 'kCndks'k (Keywords)

• miufrμ >qduk] >qdkoA
• voryμ urksnj] chp esa nck gqvk ;k xgjkA
• vkrZoμ lkef;d] ½rqfu"BA

22-8 vH;kl&iz'u (Review Questions)

1- dky&Js.kh fdls dgrs gSa\ blosQ dkSu&dkSu ls izeq[k laa?kVd gSa\
2- dky&Js.kh fo'ys"k.k ls D;k vk'k; gS\ mPpkopuksa osQ izdkjksa dks la{ksi esa crkb,A

3- dky&Jsf.k;ksa osQ fo'ys"k.k dk egÙo crkb, rFkk dky&Js.kh osQ xf.krh; ekWMy Hkh fyf[k,A
4- dky&Js.kh rFkk dky fo'ys"k.k dks Li"V :i ls le>kb,A
5- nh?kZdkyhu miufr] vkrZo fopj.k rFkk pØh; mPpkopuksa esa varj Li"V dhft,A

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