Page 330 - DECO504_STATISTICAL_METHODS_IN_ECONOMICS_HINDI

vFkZ'kkL=k esa lkaf[;dh; fof/;k¡

uksV (smoothed curve) [khapk tkrk gS tks bu mPpkopuksa osQ eè; (middle) esa ls gksrk gqvk xqtjsA okLro esa] ;g
oØ gh eqDr&gLr izo`fÙk oØ gksrk gSA bl jhfr dks ¶fujh{k.k }kjk oØ&vUok;kstu¸ (curve fitting by
inspection) Hkh dgrs gSaA
mnkgj.k (Illustration) 1. fuEu leadksa ls ;qDr gLr oØ jhfr }kjk izo`fÙk Kkr dhft,μ

o"kZ O;; (djksM+ esa) o"kZ O;; (djksM+ esa)
1960 15 1967 28
1961 21 1968 27
1962 22 1969 30
1963 19 1970 35
1964 21 1971 37
1965 26 1972 35
1966 27 1973 38

fp=k 23-1μeqDr&gLr oØ jhfr }kjk izo`fÙk dk fu/kZj.k

xq.k o nks"kμljyrk] cukus esa 'kh?kzrk rFkk tfVy xf.krh; izfØ;k dh vko';drk dk u gksuk] bl jhfr osQ
eq[; xq.k gSaA ijUrq bl jhfr osQ oqQN nks"k Hkh gSaμi{kikriw.kZ] 'kq¼rk dk vHkko] lqfuf'prrk dk vHkko rFkk
vuqeku ij vkèkkfjr gksukA ;gh dkj.k gS fd bl jhfr dk iz;ksx cgqr de fd;k tkrk gSA
(2) vèkZ&eè;d jhfr (Semi-Average Method)μ bl jhfr osQ vuqlkj loZizFke iwjh dky&Js.kh dks nks cjkcj
Hkkxksa esa ckaV fy;k tkrk gSA rRi'pkr~ izR;sd vkèks Hkkx osQ leadksa dk lekUrj ekè; fudkydj ml Hkkx osQ
eè;dk≤&fcUnq (median point of time) osQ lEeq[k j[k fn;k tkrk gSA blosQ ckn fuèkkZfjr nksuksa ekè;ksa dks
js[kkfp=k ij nksuksa Hkkxksa osQ eè;dk&fcUnqvksa osQ Åij izkafdr djosQ feyk fn;k tkrk gSA bl izdkj feykus ij
tks ljy js[kk rS;kj gksrh gS mls vèkZ&eè;d jhfr }kjk fu£er izo`fÙk&js[kk (trend line) dgrs gSaA
,d leL;kμJs.kh dks nks cjkcj Hkkxksa esa foHkkftr djrs le; dHkh&dHkh ;g leL;k vkrh gS fd Js.kh osQ
ewY;ksa dh la[;k ;fn v;qXe (odd) gks] rks ,slh gkyr esa Js.kh osQ fcYoqQy chp osQ lead dks NksM+ nsuk pkfg,]
'ks"k fØ;k iwoZor~ jgsxhA mnkgj.k osQ fy, fdlh Js.kh esa 19 ewY; gSa] rks miufr Kkr djus osQ fy, nlosa
(osQUnzh;) ewY; dks NksM+dj igys 9, vkSj nwljs 9 ewY;ksa osQ ekè;ksa dks fudkydj miufr js[kh [khaph tk;sxhA
;|fi ;g jhfr ljyrk rFkk 'kh?kzrk dk xq.k j[krh gS fiQj Hkh bl jhfr ls miufr dk lgh ewY;kadu ugha fd;k
tk ldrkA gk¡! ;g jhfr eqDr&gLr jhfr ls dgha vfèkd Js"B gSA

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