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vFkZ'kkL=k esa lkaf[;dh; fof/;k¡
uksV xq.k&nks"kμv¼Z&eè;d jhfr }kjk izo`fÙk dk vuqeku ljyrk ls yxk;k tk ldrk gSA bl jhfr ls izkIr izo`fÙk
lk¡f[;dh dh i{k er dh Hkkouk ls Hkh vizHkkfor jgrh gSA fiQj Hkh bl jhfr osQ iz;ksx dh oqQN lhek,¡ gS tks
fuEu izdkj gSaμ
(i) ;g jhfr js[kh; izo`fÙk osQ le; gh mi;qDr gSA
(ii) ;fn vfr lhekUr inksa osQ izHkko ls vadxf.krh; ekè; vokLrfod gks tkrk gS rks izo`fÙk Hkh HkzekRed
gksxhA
mDr nks lhekvksa ;k nks"kksa osQ gksrs gq, Hkh eqDr&gLr oØ jhfr dh rqyuk esa bl jhfr dk iz;ksx vf/d mi;qDr
jgrk gSA
(3) py&ekè; jhfr (Method of Moving Averages)μnh?kZdkyhu izo`fÙk osQ vuqeku osQ fy, py&ekè;
jhfr dk iz;ksx O;ogkj esa vf/d fd;k tkrk gSA 3, 5, 7 vFkok 9 o"khZ; py&ekè; Kkr dj izo`fÙk dk
vuqeku yxk;k tkrk gSA bl jhfr }kjk izo`fÙk dk vuqeku yxkus dh izfØ;k fuEu izdkj gSμ
(i) loZizFke ewy leadksa dks fcUnq js[kk&i=k ij vafdr dj ,d oØ cuk fy;k tkrk gSA
(ii) dkfyd&fp=k osQ dkyØi osQ vè;;u }kjk py ekè; dh vof/ dk fu/kZj.k (3, 5, 7 ;k 9 o"kZ)
dj fy;k tkrk gSA ewy oØ dh pØh; rjaxksa esa dbZ f'k[kj gksrs gSa] buosQ vUrj dk ekè; Kkr
dj py&ekè; dh vof/ dk fu/kZj.k djuk mi;qDr fof/ ekuh tkrh gSA
(iii) fu/kZfjr vof/ osQ vk/kj ij py&ekè; Kkr dj fy, tkrs gSaA py&ekè; Kkr djus osQ fy,
igys py ;ksx Kkr fd;k tkrk gS vkSj mlesa py&ekè; dh vof/ dk Hkkx fd;k tkrk gSA
mnkgj.kkFkZ rhu o"khZ; py&ekè; Kkr djus osQ fy, igys rhu o"khZ; py ;ksx (izFke] f}rh;
vkSj r`rh; o"kZ dk ;ksx] f}rh;] r`rh; vkSj prqFkZ o"kZ dk ;ksx-----) Kkr dj muesa 3 dk Hkkx dj
eè; osQ o"kZ (vFkkZr~ f}rh;] r`rh;---o"kks±) osQ lkeus j[k fn;k tkrk gSA bl izfØ;k esa izFke ,oa
vfUre o"kZ dks NksM+dj lHkh o"kks± osQ lkeus py&ekè; j[k fn, tkrs gSaA blh izdkj 5, 7 o 9
o"khZ; py&ekè; Hkh Kkr fd, tk ldrs gSaA py&ekè; Kkr djus dh izfØ;k dks ^osQUnzh; izo`fÙk
osQ eki* okys vè;k; esa Li"V fd;k tk pqdk gSA
(iv) py&ekè;ksa osQ fcUnqvksa dks izkafdr dj mUgsa feykus ls izkIr js[kk izo`fÙk dks O;Dr djrh gSA
py&ekè;ksa dks izo`fÙk&ewY; Hkh dgk tkrk gSA
uksV~l v/Z&eè;d 'kCn dk vFkZ gS Js.kh osQ izR;sd vk/s Hkkx iwok/Z rFkk mÙkjk/Z osQ ewY;ksa dk lekUrj
ekè;A
mnkgj.k (Illustration) 3: fuEu dky&Js.kh osQ fy, iapo"khZ; py ekè; Kkr dhft, vkSj bUgsa ewy leadksa
osQ lkFk mlh fcUnqjs[kk i=k ij izkafdr dhft,A
o"kZ okf"kZd lead o"kZ okf"kZd lead
1 55 16 70
2 52 17 68
3 49 18 65
4 53 19 64
5 54 20 68
6 60 21 73
7 57 22 71
326 LOVELY PROFESSIONAL UNIVERSITY
