Page 329 - DECO504_STATISTICAL_METHODS_IN_ECONOMICS_HINDI

bdkbZ—23% dky Js.kh dh xzkfdd ,oa vFkZ &eè;d jhfr
Dilfraz Singh, Lovely Professional University

uksV
bdkbZμ23: dky Js.kh dh xzkfdd ,oa vFkZ &eè;d jhfr
(Time Series Methods: Graphic, Method of

Semi-Averages)

vuqØef.kdk (Contents)
mís'; (Objectives)

izLrkouk (Introduction)
23.1 lqnh?kZdkyhu izo`fÙk dk eki (Measurement of Long-Term Trand)

23.2 lkjka'k (Summary)
23.3 'kCndks'k (Keywords)
23.4 vH;kl&iz'u (Review Questions)

23.5 lanHkZ iqLrosaQ (Further Readings)

mís'; (Objectives)

bl bdkbZ osQ vè;;u osQ i'pkr~ fo|kFkhZ ;ksX; gksaxsμ
• lqnh?kZdkyhu izo`fÙk osQ ekiksa dh foospuk djus esaA

izLrkouk (Introduction)

le; dh xfr osQ lkFk&lkFk vkfFkZd ,oa O;olkf;d {ks=k esa dbZ egÙoiw.kZ ifjorZu gksrs jgrs gSa] fdlh o"kZ
dherksa esa o`f¼ dh izo`fÙk n`f"Vxkspj gksrh gS vkSj dHkh deh dh izo`fÙkA tc le; ls laca/ ewY;ksa dks ,d Js.kh
osQ :i esa fy[kk tkrk gS rks ;g dky Js.kh dgykrh gS vkSj le; dh xfr osQ lkFk&lkFk bu ewY;ksa esa gksus okys
mPpkopuksa dk fof/or~ vè;;u dky Js.kh dk fo'ys"k.k dgykrk gSA
12 ;k vf/d o"kks± dh le;kof/ esa dky Js.kh lkekU;r% o`f¼ ;k ßkl dh izo`fÙk dks O;Dr djrh gSA o"kZ fo'ks"k
esa deh ;k o`f¼ gks ldrh gS fdUrq nh?kZdky esa dky Js.kh ,d gh izo`fÙk dks O;Dr djrh gSA

23-1 lqnh?kZdkyhu izo`fÙk dk eki (Measurement of Long-Term Trand)

lqnh?kZdkyhu izo`fÙk vFkok miufr fo'ys"k.k dk eq[; mís'; fdlh dky&Js.kh esa ?kfVr Hkwrdkyhu o`f¼ ;k Ékl
rFkk Hkkoh iwokZuqeku yxkuk gSA miufr (T) dks ekius dh eq[; jhfr;k¡ bl izdkj gSaμ(1) eqDr&gLr oØ jhfr] (2)
vèkZ&eè;d jhfr] (3) py&ekè; jhfr] rFkk (4) U;wure oxZ&jhfrA uhps ge budk foLr`r vè;;u djsaxsA
(1) eqDr&gLr jhfr (Free-hand Curve Method)μlqnh?kZdkyhu izo`fÙk dks ekius dh ;g jhfr lcls ljyre
jhfr ekuh tkrh gSA bl jhfr osQ vuqlkj loZizFke dky&Js.kh osQ ewy leadksa dks ,d fcUnq&js[kh; i=k ij izkafdr
(plot) dj fy;k tkrk gSA rRi'pkr~ leadksa osQ mrkj&p<+ko dks ns[krs gq, ,d ,slk loksZi;qDr ljfyr oØ

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