Page 326 - DECO504_STATISTICAL_METHODS_IN_ECONOMICS_HINDI

vFkZ'kkL=k esa lkaf[;dh; fof/;k¡

uksV 22-5 dky&Js.kh dk egÙo (Importance of Time-Series)

dky&Js.kh dk vè;;u O;olk;h] m|ksxifr] vFkZ'kkL=kh] ljdkj] Ñ"kd] miHkksDrk] vkfn lHkh oxks± osQ fy,
egRoiw.kZ gSA dky&Js.kh thou osQ fofHkUu {ks=kksa esa gksus okys ifjorZuksa dk vè;;u] Hkfo"; osQ ckjs esa vuqeku]
fiNys vuqHko ls ykHk] O;kikj&pØ dk vuqeku rFkk nwljh dky&Jsf.k;ksa osQ lkFk rqyuk djus esa cgqr gh
mi;ksxh gSA bu lcosQ fy, dky&Js.kh esa leadksa dk fo'ys"k.k fd;k tkrk gSA

dky&Js.kh osQ fo'ys"k.k dk vf/d egRo fuEu dkj.kksa ls gSμ
(1) ifjorZuksa dk vè;;uμdky&Jsf.k;ksa dh lgk;rk ls thou osQ fofHkUu {ks=kksa esa fo'ks"kr% vk£Fkd ,oa
O;kolkf;d {ks=kksa esa gksus okys ifjorZuksa dk vè;;u fd;k tkrk gSA
(2) Hkfo"; osQ ckjs esa vuqekuμdky&Jsf.k;ksa osQ fo'ys"k.k osQ vè;;u ls Hkfo"; esa gksus okys ifjorZuksa
osQ fo"k; esa vuqeku yxk;k tk ldrk gS vkSj blls ykHk mBk;k tk ldrk gS ;k gksus okyh gkfu osQ
mik; fd;s tk ldrs gSaA
(3) Hkwrdkyhu O;ogkj le>us esa lgk;dμHkwrdky esa gq, ifjorZuksa dh n'kk dk vè;;u djosQ rFkk
ifjfLFkfr;ksa dk fo'ys"k.k djosQ] ftuosQ izHkko ls ,slk gqvk gS] egRoiw.kZ fu"d"kZ fudkys tk ldrs gSa
vkSj muosQ vk/kj ij O;ogkjksa dks fu;fU=kr fd;k tk ldrk gSA
(4) O;kikj&pØ dk vuqekuμpØh; mPpkopuksa dh lgk;rk ls O;kikj esa gksus okys mrkj&p<+koksa dk
vuqeku yxk;k tk ldrk gS vkSj bl vk/kj ij viuh fØ;kvksa dks fu;fU=kr djosQ gkfu ls cpk tk
ldrk gS rFkk ykHk mBk;k tk ldrk gSA
(5) nwljh Jsf.k;ksa osQ lkFk rqyukμdky&Jsf.k;ksa dh vkil esa rqyuk dh tkrh gS rFkk dkj.k o izHkko dk
fo'ys"k.k fd;k tk ldrk gSA
(6) lkoZHkkSfed mi;ksfxrkμdky&Jsf.k;ksa osQ fo'ys"k.k dh lkoZHkkSfed mi;ksfxrk gSA buls lHkh oxZμO;olk;h]
Ñ"kd] miHkksDrk] vFkZ'kkL=kh] ljdkj] fuekZ.kdrkZ] vkfnμykHk mBkrs gSa vkSj bu vuqHkoksa osQ vk/kj ij
viuh fØ;kvksa dks fu;fU=kr o lapkfyr djrs gSaA
dky&Js.kh osQ vè;;u esa fuEu nks ckrksa dk è;ku j[kuk mfpr gSμ

(1) ifjorZu dh fn'kk] dky rFkk izHkko dk vè;;u] ,oa
(2) vU; Jsf.k;ksa ls lEcU/A

Lo&ewY;kadu (Self Assessment)

1- lgh fodYi pqfu, (Choose the correct option)μ
1. ftl lead Js.kh osQ pj&ewY;ksa esa le; rRo }kjk ifjorZu gks ml Js.kh dks dgrs gSaμ

(d) dky&Js.kh ([k) dky&ekyk
(x) (d) vkSj ([k) nksuksa (?k) buesa ls dksbZ ughaA
2. dky Js.kh osQ la?kVd gSaμ
(d) miufr ([k) vkrZo
(x) pØh; ifjorZu (?k) mi;qZDr lHkhA
3. ;fn dksbZ Js.kh c<+rh gS rks mls dgrs gSaμ

(d) c<+rh gqbZ miufr ([k) ?kVrh gqbZ miufr
(x) fLFkj miufr (?k) buesa ls dksbZ ughaA

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