Page 325 - DECO504_STATISTICAL_METHODS_IN_ECONOMICS_HINDI

bdkbZ—22% dky&Js.kh dk fo'ys"k.k% ifjp; ,oa dky&Js.kh osQ la?kVd

vfu;fer ifjorZu (Irregular Variations) uksV
le;≤ ij dky&Js.kh esa gksus okys vfu;fer ;k viwokZuqekfur ifjorZu ftuosQ dkj.k Js.kh ewY;ksa esa
vlkekU; :i ls o`f¼ ;k ßkl gks tkrk gS] vfu;fer ;k nSo ifjorZu dgykrs gSaA budk ekiu djuk ;k iwokZuqeku
djuk ljy ugha gS D;ksafd bu ifjorZuksa dk dksbZ fuf'pr le; ugha gksrk gSA ,sls mPpkopu (fluctuation or
movements) izk;% vkdfLed dkj.kksa tSls] rduhdh fodkl] ;q¼] ck<+] lw[kk] HkwdEi] vkS|ksfxd v'kkfUr]
iSQDVjh esa vkx yxuk] vkfn ls mRiUu gksrs gSaA

22-3 dky&Js.kh dk fo'ys"k.k ;k fo?kVu (Analysis or Decomposition of Time-
Series)

okf.kT; rFkk vFkZ'kkL=k osQ {ks=k esa vk£Fkd ifjorZu osQ dkj.kksa dks [kkstuk fo'ys"k.k dh lcls dfBu leL;k
gSA bl izdkj dh [kkst osQ fy, dky&Js.kh leadksa dk fo'ys"k.k fd;k tkrk gSA ,d dky&Js.kh ls fdlh pj
dh lkekU; izo`fÙk dk lgh vuqeku] vkorZ ifjorZuksa] pØh; ifjorZuksa rFkk vfu;fer ifjorZuksa dh eki djuk
rFkk bu pkj egRoiw.kZ ?kVdksa dk vkil esa lEcU/] vkfn vè;;u djus osQ fy, dky&Js.kh esa vk;s lHkh izdkj
osQ mrkj&p<+koksa dk fo'ys"k.k djuk iM+rk gS] blh dks ge dky&Js.kh dk fo'ys"k.k dgrs gSaA
dky&Js.kh osQ pkj izeq[k la?kVdksa dks i`Fko~Q&i`Fko~Q dj mudk vè;;u djuk gh dky&Js.kh dk fo'ys"k.k
dgykrk gSA fofHkUu izdkj osQ ifjorZuksa dk ekiu ;k vè;;u fujlu (elimination) fof/ ls fd;k tkrk gSA

22-4 dky&Js.kh osQ xf.krh; fun'kZ (Mathematical Models for Time-Series)

dky&Js.kh dk fo'ys"k.k djrs le;] ,d dky&Js.kh ij iM+us okys fofHkUu izdkj osQ izHkkoksa dks vyx&vyx
fd;k tkrk gSA ijEijkxr dky&Js.kh fo'ys"k.k esa lkekU;r% nks ekU;rk,a jgrh gSaμ

(1) dky&Js.kh osQ voyksdu miufr] lkef;d] pØh; rFkk vfu;fer mPpkopuksa (fluctuations) ls izHkkfor
gksrs gSa rFkk bu pkjksa la?kVdksa esa xq.ku lEcU/ (multiplication relationship) gksrk gS] vFkkZr~ dky&Js.kh dk
dksbZ Hkh voyksdu pkj izdkj osQ la?kVdksa dk xq.kuiQy gksrk gSA laosQrkuqlkj]
Y = T × S × C × I
blesa] Y = okLrfod lead vFkok ewy lead (Original Data)
T = miufr (Trend)
S = pØh; ifjorZu (Cyclical Variation)
I = vfu;fer mPpkopu (Irregular Movement)

dky&Js.kh osQ fo'ys"k.k esa iz;qDr bl fun'kZ [Y = T × S × C × I] dks xq.kkRed fun'kZ (Multiplicative Model)
dgrs gSaA
(2) dky&Js.kh osQ voyksdu miufr] lkef;d] pØh; rFkk vfu;fer mPpkopuksa esa ;ksx&lEcU/ gksrs gSa]
vFkkZr~ dky&Js.kh dk dksbZ Hkh voyksdu bu pkj la?kVdksa dk ;ksx gksrk gSA laosQrkuqlkj]
Y = T + S + C + I
bl fun'kZ dks ;ksxkRed fun'kZ (Additive Model) dgrs gSaA

dky&Js.kh dk egRo rFkk dky&Js.kh osQ fo'ys"k.k dk egRo ,d izdkj ls

i;kZ;okph gSaA

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