Page 207 - DMGT404 RESEARCH_METHODOLOGY

Anand Thakur, Lovely Professional University Unit 10: Time Series

Unit 10: Time Series Notes

CONTENTS
Objectives
Introduction
10.1 Time Series Analysis
10.2 Components of a Time Series
10.2.1 Secular Trend

10.2.2 Periodic Variations
10.2.3 Random or Irregular Variations
10.3 Time Series Forecasting Method
10.3.1 Method of Moving Average
10.3.2 Exponential Smoothing
10.4 The Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)
10.5 Mean Squared Error (MSE)

10.6 Seasonal Variations
10.6.1 Method of Simple Averages
10.6.2 Ratio to Trend Method
10.6.3 Ratio to Moving Average Method
10.6.4 Link Relatives Method
10.7 Summary
10.8 Keywords
10.9 Review Questions

10.10 Further Readings

Objectives

After studying this unit, you will be able to:
 Recognize the time series analysis
 Identify the components of time series

 Explain the time series forecasting method
 Discuss the seasonal variations
 Describe the various methods to measure seasonal variations

Introduction

The future has always held a great fascination for mankind. Perhaps this is biologically
determined. Man and the higher apes seem to have brains that are equipped to engage in actions
for which a future reward is anticipated. In extreme situation reward is anticipated not in this
life but in the next life.

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