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Unit 3: Planning and Decision-making




               relevant, but some are more relevant than others. How does the decision-maker weight  Notes
               criteria? A simple  approach would  merely be to  give  the most  important criteria  a
               number – say 10 – and then assign weights to the rest of the criteria against this standard.
               4th Step – Develop the Alternatives: This step requires the decision-maker to list all the viable
               alternatives that could possibly succeed in resolving the problem. No attempt is made in
               this step to appraise the alternatives, only to list them.
               5th Step  – Evaluate  the  Alternatives:  Once the  alternatives  have  been  identified,  the
               decision-maker must critically evaluate each one. The  strengths and  weakness of each
               alternative will become evident when they are compared against the criteria and weights
               established in step 2 and 3.
               6th Step – Select the best Alternative: The final step in the optimizing decision model is the
               selection of the best alternative from among those enumerated and evaluated. Since best
               is defined in terms of highest total score, the selection is quite simple. The decision-maker
               merely chooses the alternative that generated the largest total score in step 5.

               Assumptions of the Optimizing Model: The steps in the optimizing model contain a number
               of assumptions. They are:
               (a)  The optimizing model assumes there is no conflict over the goal.

               (b)  It is assumed the decision-maker can identify all the relevant criteria and can list all
                    viable  alternatives.
               (c)  Under the optimizing model, the criteria and alternatives can be assigned numerical
                    values and ranked in a preferential order.
               (d)  It is assumed that the specific decision criteria are constant and the weights assigned
                    to them are stable over time.
               (e)  Under the optimizing model, the decision-maker will choose  the alternative that
                    rates highest.

               Predictions from  the Optimizing Model: From  the above mentioned assumptions, we
               would predict that the individual decision-maker would:
               (a)  Have a clear-cut and specific goal.

               (b)  Have a fully comprehensive set of criteria that determine the relevant factors in the
                    decision;
               (c)  Precisely rank the criteria, which will be stable over time.

               (d)  Select the alternative that scores highest after all options have been evaluated.
          4.   Garbage Can Model: Sometimes the decision-making process in organisations appears to
               be haphazard and unpredictable. In the garbage can model, decisions are random and
               unsystematic. In this model, the organisation is a garbage can in which problems, solutions,
               participants, and choice opportunities are floating around randomly. If the four factors
               happen to connect, a decision is made. The quality of the decision depends on timing. The
               right participants must find the right solution to the right problem at the right time.

               The Garbage Can Model illustrates the idea that not all organisational decisions are made
               in a step-by-step, systematic fashion. Especially under conditions of high uncertainty, the
               decision process may be chaotic. Some decisions appear to happen out of sheer luck.
          5.   Implicit Favourite Model: The implicit favourite model is a decision-making model where
               the decision-maker implicitly selects a preferred alternative early in the decision process
               and biases the evaluation of all other choices.



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