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bdkbZµ24% O;kikj pozQ % ifjHkk"kk ,oa izdkj
gS ftudh fof'k"Vrk c<+rh dheras rFkk de csjkstxkj izfr'krrk gS vkSj tks vofèk;k¡ fxjrh dherksa rFkk Å¡ph uksV
csjks”kxkj izfr'krrk ls ;qDr cqjs O;kikj dh vofèk;ksa osQ lkFk vny&cny djrh gSaA¸ izks- ,LVs osQ vuqlkj]
¶pØh; mrkj p<+ko dh fof'k"Vrk foLrkj rFkk laoqQpu dh rjaxksa dk vny&cny gSA mudh dksbZ fu;r y;
ugha gksrh] ijarq os bl vFkZ esa pØh; gksrs gSa fd laoqQpu rFkk foLrkj dh voLFkk,¡ vDlj rFkk i;kZIr :Ik ls
feyrs&tqyrs <ax ij ckj&ckj vkrh gSaA¸ O;kikj&pØksa dh fLFkfr esa y{; djus dh egÙoiw.kZ ckr ;g gS fd
dksbZ Hkh pØ ,d:i] ckjackj rFkk foLrkj ls ;qDr iw.kZ:i ls fu;fer ugha gksrk vFkkZr ,slk ugha gksrk fd mRiknu
osQ ,d f'k[kj Lrj ls nwljs rd igq¡pus esa ges'kk ,d gh le; yxs vkSj mRiknu rFkk jkstxkj dk Lrj Åij rFkk
uhps osQ eksM+ ¯cnqvksa osQ chp ges'kk ,d gh vuqikr esa fopj.k djsA ijarq bl rjg osQ pØ dHkh ?kfVr ugha gq,A
bl izdkj O;kikj&pØ oqQy jkstxkj vk;] mRiknu rFkk dher Lrjksa esa vkorhZ mrkj&p<+ko gksrs gSaA
24-1 pØksa osQ izdkj (Types of Cycles)
O;kikj&pØksa dks lkekU;r% fuEu izdkj oxhZÑr fd;k tkrk gSA
(1) vYi fdfpu pØ (The short Kitchin Cycle)µbls y?kq&pØ Hkh dgrs gSa] tks yxHkx 40 ekl dh
vofèk dk gksrk gSA ;g fczfV'k vFkZ'kkL=kh tkslsiQ fdfpu (Joseph Kitchin) osQ uke ij izfl¼ gS ftlus 1923
esa cM+s rFkk NksVs pØ osQ chp Hksn izLrqr fd;kA og vius 'kksèk osQ vkèkkj ij bl fu"d"kZ ij igq¡pk fd cM+k
pØ 40 ekl osQ nks ;k rhu pØksa dk gksrk gSA
(2) nh?kZ tqXyj pØ (The long Juglar cycle)µbl pØ dks cM+k pØ Hkh dgrs gSaA bls bl izdkj
ifjHkkf"kr fd;k tkrk gSA ¶;g vuqØfed (successive) ladVksa osQ chp O;kikj fØ;k dk mrkj&p<+ko gksrk gSA¸
1862 esa Úkalhlh vFkZ'kkL=kh DyhesaV tqXyj (Clement Juglar) us ;g crk;k fd le`f¼] ladV rFkk ifjlekiu
(Liquidation) dh vofèk;k¡ ges'kk ,d gh Øe esa ,d nwljh osQ ckn vkrh gSA ik'pkR; vFkZ'kkL=kh bl fu"d"kZ
ij igq¡prs gSa fd tqXyj pØ dh vofèk vkSlru lk<+s ukS o"kZ gksrh gSA
(3) vfr nh?kZ dksanzkrhiQ pØ (The very long Kondratieff cycle)µ1925 eas :lh vFkZ'kkL=kh
dksUnzkrhiQ bl fu"d"kZ ij igq¡pk fd pØksa dh vfr nh?kZ rjaxsa gksrh gSa ftudh vofèk 50 o"kZ ls vfèkd gksrh
gS vkSj tks N% tqXyj pØksa dh cuh gksrh gSA cgqr gh yacs pØ dks dksanzkrhiQ rjaxsa dgk tkus yxk gSA
(4) Hkou lacaèkh pØ (Building Cycle)µbl izdkj osQ pØ os gSa tks Hkouksa osQ fuekZ.k ls lacaèk j[krs gSa
vkSj ftudh vofèk cgqr vfèkd fu;fer gksrh gSA budh vofèk cM+s pØksa dh vofèk ls nqxquh vkSj vkSlru
18 o"kZ gksrh gSA bl rjg osQ pØ okju (Warren) rFkk fi;lZu (Pearson) uked nks vejhdh vFkZ'kkfL=k;ksa osQ
uke ls lac¼ gSa] tks World Price and the Building Industry (1937) uked iqLrd eas izLrqr fu"d"kZ ij igq¡ps FksA
(5) oqQ”kusV~l pØ (Kuznets Cycle)µizfl¼ vejhdh vFkZ'kkL=kh izks- lkbeu oqQ”kusV~l us 16&22 o"kZ osQ
nh?kZdkyhu mRkkj&p<+ko (secular swing) uked ,d izdkj osQ pØksa dh izLFkkiuk dh_ ftls ,sls <ax ls izLrqr
fd;k x;k gS fd og 7&11 o"kZ osQ pØ dks vis{kkÑr egRoghu cuk nsrk gSA bls oqQ”kusV~l pØ dgk tkus yxk
gSA
uksV~l O;kikj&pØ iw¡thoknh vFkZO;oLFkk dk vax gSA ;g pØh; rsft;ksa rFkk eafn;ksa osQ fo"k; ls lacafèkr gSA
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